The New York Post reports that on that day, daily numbers could hit one million, even after vaccines are distributed. The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation came up with the worst-case scenario, which takes into account three million daily doses of the vaccine administered over 90 days and that “states do not re-impose any social distancing measures.”
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation research institute’s one million COVID case projection factors in total infections, as well as those that aren’t confirmed with testing.
That number could possibly decline to around 448,000 if states impose stricter lockdowns, which, according to the institute’s model, are imposed when a state see eight deaths a day per million of its population.
We could see even lower numbers of 293,000 during a 90-day vaccine distribution period if 95 percent of the population wears masks in public. But even with an effective vaccine, the U.S. could see 539,000 deaths by April 1.
“Mass scale-up of vaccination in 2021 means we have a path back to normal life, but there are still a few rough months ahead,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, IHME director. “We must be vigilant in protecting ourselves at least through April, when, as our projections indicate, vaccines will begin to have an impact.”