The public will almost always back the favorite and the public is wrong way more than they're right. That’s why the house always cleans up. Force yourself to go the other way and take the points or the underdog on the money line. Take it from your highness—there are prime times in every sports season when it behooves you to take the dog. November in the NFL. February in college basketball. March in the NBA. August in MLB. Thursday night home dogs in college football.