Evil genius statitician Nate Silver brought his math game to the Academy Awards today. He predicts Argo will win Best Picture (Producers Guild Awards are good indicators), Steven Spielberg will win Best Director, Daniel Day-Lewis will win Best Actor (we can all probably agree on that one), and Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress. Surprisingly, he's got Tommy Lee Jones for Best Supporting Actor—not that his performance wasn't great, but the favorite seems to be Christoph Waltz.
His Oscar predictions since 2009 are 9 for 12, a 75% accuracy rate, he notes. However, his election predictions were insane, so maybe this'll be his year.
In 2008 he correctly predicted the presedential election outcomes of 49 states and all 35 Senate races. Last year, he got all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and 31 out of 33 Senate races.
Silver's also got Anne Hathaway winning Best Supporting Actress. "Anne Hathaway as about as safe a bet to win for Les Misérables as Mitt Romney was to win Utah," he says. "If Sally Field or Amy Adams wins instead, it will probably be time for me to retire from the Oscar-forecasting business."