When the NBA announced the starters for the All-Star game on Feb. 18, it became official that for the first time since 2014, a Raptor would not have their name called out at the global showcase event.
Toronto paid the price for a slow start in that regard but the manner in which they’ve bounced back from their 2-8 start shows that this is a team that will be a difficult out in the post-season and that would be impossible without some terrific individual play worthy of at least one All-Star selection.
Pascal Siakam has been terrific over the past 13 games, averaging 23.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists while shooting 37 percent from three-point range, but took too long to round into form. Kyle Lowry has been as expected in the 25 games he’s played, but the games missed and lack of eye-popping numbers leave him short of being the best candidate. No one has been a constant for the Raptors nor made a leap quite like Fred VanVleet this season.
Now in his fifth NBA season, VanVleet is averaging 20.1 points, 6.6 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals. Those numbers don’t necessarily scream All-Star, but that’s because he’s never emptying the clip unless he needs to. When the Raptors have broken glass, VanVleet has scored 25 points or more on 11 occasions including 54 on the Magic and 33 on the Bucks—the latter a statement win coming with no Lowry for the second half. No one has more deflections this season than him and he is tied for second in loose balls recovered behind reigning two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
If it were up to him, he’d be there.
“Of course I feel like I’m an All-Star,” VanVleet said when asked about his chances. “I’m a confident guy. I don’t work this hard to not feel that way. I don’t play the way that I play to not feel that way. So, of course, I would love to be an All-Star. I would love to have the respect of the coaches in the league. But I don’t play the game for that, you know what I’m saying? Does that make sense? But yeah, it would be nice to be recognized that way.”
It’s clear VanVleet has a case, but there are plenty others who have their own case as well. Let’s go through the process of elimination to determine if Mr. Bet on Yourself’s odds are more in favour of being picked or snubbed.
The competition
Winning matters
Double or nothing?
Could the second wildcard spot also be a guard? For the frontcourt reserves, Jayson Tatum and Julius Randle will likely get voted in. Jimmy Butler will probably be penalized for team record and missing too many games (he’s played 18 of 31 games). Are the Bucks worthy of a second All-Star at 18-13? Will Bam Adebayo suffer a similar fate to his teammate Butler despite having been ever-present and exceedingly effective? Nikola Vucevic has excellent numbers but is in tough with the Magic at 13-18. That probably leaves Domantas Sabonis being the sole representative of the Indiana Pacers with their 15-14 record.
All this to say, there’s a very real possibility both wildcard spots go to guards. VanVleet, with his performances and team record, should be ahead of Adebayo and Vucevic. Assuming Sabonis takes the third frontcourt spot ahead of Middleton, VanVleet has a solid case over the latter having just led the Raptors to consecutive wins over the Bucks while helping limit Middleton to 24 points and five assists to 11 turnovers across the two games. VanVleet meanwhile combined for 50 points and 15 assists to six turnovers over the two games. Nothing like a healthy dose of recency bias for situations like this.
So, we’re all the way back to whether VanVleet gets in ahead of LaVine or Young. The winning case has been made, VanVleet has the better advanced metrics, too, and if coaches want to consider entertainment value, VanVleet is no slouch there, either. I’ll rest my case with these plays against the reigning two-time MVP and Defensive Player of the Year:
VanVleet absolutely has a strong case to be there in Atlanta and it will indeed be a snub if he misses out. The positive for Raptors fans is that whichever way it goes, he won’t be too fussed about it and will just keep getting it done.
“I’ll probably be on the beach for those couple days when we get to the All-Star break,” VanVleet said when asked what he’ll do if he doesn’t get selected. “I play the game extremely hard, I try to play with a pure heart every night, I play as hard as I possibly can, and whatever rewards I receive along that journey I’ll have to live with that one way or another.”
