2023 NFL Mock Draft V. 1: Predicting Round 1

Image via Getty/Sean Gardner

Chicago is loaded with cap space and draft capital coming into the new year, and that’s a great thing because this roster is pretty bare from top to bottom. Ideally, the Bears would love to create a bidding war here for teams looking to move up and grab a quarterback. That said, they won’t want to go too far back into the order and lose a golden opportunity to select a blue-chip player in Alabama’s Will Anderson.

In a loaded edge rusher class, Anderson stands above the others after dominating SEC competition for his entire career. He’s athletic and stronger than even his 6-foot-4 frame suggests. With a red-hot motor that never stops, it’s hard to find defenders that are this consistently disruptive against the run and pass. Anderson would give the Bears a foundation piece on a defense that’s currently lacking an identity. 

Houston bypassed last season’s quarterback class entirely, acknowledging that the state of their roster had them likely headed for another top-five pick. They were correct, and now it’s time for the organization to find a signal caller who can give the city some hope for the future. The Texans won’t be an attractive landing spot for veteran quarterbacks, meaning they need to take one here in the first round.

When you take a look at the roster, the best player to navigate through some less-than-ideal circumstances early on is Byre Young. An accurate passer who is also a wizard at navigating through pressure in the pocket, Young’s poise is exactly what the franchise needs at the position in order to accelerate its rebuild. 

Arizona definitely didn’t expect to be selecting this high. With Kyler Murray’s unfortunate injury means their short-term outlook is bleak, but this could be another target spot for other teams looking to move up for a quarterback. The Cardinals defense is littered with top picks who haven’t offered a ton of excitement to date, but the team is in a prime spot to add another blue-chip player in Jalen Carter.  He’s a one-man wrecking ball in the middle of a defense with a rare combination of power and movement skills. Already a dominant run defender with a developing pass rush arsenal, Carter’s ceiling is as high as any prospect in this entire class. With J.J. Watt announcing his retirement, Carter will have big shoes to fill. But he’s well worth the investment here. 

Indianapolis has ridden the veteran quarterback carousel for far too long, wasting the peak years of an otherwise talented roster. While it’s unclear who their head coach will be next season, the front office may need a new face of the franchise in place in order to secure some level of job security. It makes sense of them to turn their attention towards Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.

Stroud is an NFL-ready, throwback pocket-passer type who’s accurate to all three levels of the field. In the College Football Playoffs, Stroud proved he could extend plays with his legs against top competition, which will be necessary for him at the next level—especially considering the Colts’ struggles in the trenches last season. 

Seattle was arguably the biggest and best surprise of the NFL this past season, making the playoffs after trading away franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to Denver. With Wilson and the Broncos getting off to a disastrous start in year one, the Seahawks’ top-five pick means they made out even better from the trade. Despite overachieving on both sides of the ball, though, it’s obvious that this team has a glaring pass-rushing need.

Enter Tyree Wilson, a draft prospect hailing from Texas Tech University. Wilson comes equipped with unbelievable length, a wingspan over seven feet, and tons of power capacity. Seattle has some promising young players on defense, but they’re lacking that premier pass rusher up front to generate consistent pressure. With time, Wilson should be able to provide that.

Speaking of teams that shocked the world last season, the Detroit Lions were a pleasant surprise under head coach Dan Campbell. From starring on Hard Knocks to just narrowly missing the postseason, Detroit has a very promising future in the NFC North, a division with plenty of uncertainty moving forward. After adding Aidan Hutchinson to the mix at the top of last year’s NFL Draft, it’s time for them to address their secondary.

Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez has the type of build and long speed that you dream of when searching premier players at this position. Gonzalez has fluid hips, can turn and run with the speediest of wide receivers, and has showcased improved playmaking ability after he transferred to Oregon last fall. Injuries have unfortunately hampered the development of Jeff Okudah, but that shouldn’t scare Detroit from trying for another corner early in the first round. 

The Derek Carr era came to an abrupt end this year after the nine-year veteran was benched for the final weeks of the 2022 season.  But Las Vegas is still in a brutal division, trying to compete with elite quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. They have a plethora of needs on defense, but in order to compete with those teams in the near future, they have to shoot for the stars at the game’s most important position. 

Arguably the most polarizing prospect in the entire draft class is Kentucky’s Will Levis, whose final college season didn’t exactly go as planned due to injuries, coaching changes and a replenished supporting cast. Levis has the desired size and athleticism for today’s NFL to go along with a lightning-quick release that generates easy velocity with little-to-no wasted motion. Levis is an older prospect who has experience operating within an NFL system and should be able to take the reigns sooner rather than later. 

Atlanta was competitive once again in their second season under Arthur Smith, albeit in a woeful NFC South division that produced no real threat to the NFC landscape. They invested only a third-round pick (that they received after trading Matt Ryan to Indianapolis) to nab Desmond Ridder in last season’s draft, and while they will undoubtedly do plenty of homework on the quarterback class, the board doesn’t quite fall their way here. With that in mind, they can pivot and add to their pass rush weaponry. 

It seems like it’s been ages since the Falcons defense has had a player off of the edge that scared offensive coordinators on a weekly basis. Their defensive line features one of the more underrated players in football in Grady Jarrett, but they’ve never been able to pair him with another impact player. Though Murphy isn’t quite there yet in terms of his pass rush plan, his blend of size, power and explosiveness is intriguing. 

Carolina is a team in transition—and one that realizes they aren’t likely a year away from their goals—which is why they made the smart decision to deal Christian McCaffrey while he had value instead of continuing to pay him top dollar without much around him. Ironically, rattling off a couple wins late in the second half of the season ultimately puts them in a much tougher spot to grab a needed quarterback. Carolina has some exciting young pieces already on defense, but adding a different style rusher to the mix would be an optimal choice. 

Carolina is likely going to make Brian Burns a very rich man in the next couple of months after he had his best year as a pro, establishing himself as one of the best speed rushers in the game. The problem is: They don’t really have anyone else up front that can consistently win one-on-one matchups alongside him. Lukas Van Ness wasn’t even a full-time player in college, but his ability to bull-rush offensive lineman and his surprising burst for a bigger guy made him hard to miss when he was out on the field. 

Armed with arguably the most complete roster from top to bottom in all of football, it seems pretty unfair that the Eagles are picking inside the top ten while also being one of the final four teams alive in the postseason. Philadelphia has a lot of interesting decisions to make in free agency, as they have quality starters on both sides of the football looking to hit the market. Since it’s not clear the team has any true needs at the moment, it feels right to stick with what the Eagles know best—building the trenches. 

The Eagles’ offensive and defensive philosophies both seem to revolve solely around trying to beat the crap out of the opposing team by imposing their will at the line of scrimmage. With starting right guard Isaac Seumalo hitting free agency, why not add the most polished offensive lineman in the draft? As a tackle, Skoronski will have trouble hitting the length thresholds for every NFL team, but he’s a technically refined prospect, both as a run blocker and pass protector, whose move inside to guard should be seamless. 

Tennessee is a team at a crossroads. Ryan Tannehill’s cap hit is spiking to an absurd figure, and Derrick Henry is battling father time and extreme usage. With a new general manager in town, he’s got several huge decisions to make on some of the longer-tenured players on the team. Whether it’s Tannehill, Malik Willis or someone else, the Titans have no choice but to be proactive about addressing an offensive line who torpedoed their offense last season. 

Lucky for the Titans, they’re blessed to be staring at the face of the best tackle prospect in the class in Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. He has the ideal blend of size and athleticism for the position, and he gives the Titans the ability to select a true heir apparent to Taylor Lewan (who’s had some troubles staying healthy in recent seasons). With improved hands, Johnson has all of the tools to become one of the better left tackles in the league in due time.

After selecting Bryce Young with their first pick of this mock draft, the Texans have already solved their biggest need. Now, they can flip their other first-round pick, acquired from Cleveland after last year’s Deshaun Watson trade, to the defensive side of the ball. Best case scenario, this is a team that is a couple years away from competing—so they’re able to bet on traits and upside here by selecting Bryan Bresee from Clemson. 

Bresee has been dealt a tough hand with his off-the-field circumstances and health (his 15-year-old sister died of cancer in September, and he had a number of complications from a strep throat infection), but you still see the flashes of dominance that once made him the nation’s top recruit coming out of high school. The medicals are a big concern here, and those will likely play a massive role in determining just how high he could go in April. But the talent is evident. Bresee has plus movement skills for the position and offers upside as a disruptor in the middle of the Texans front.  

The Jets defense under head coach Robert Saleh was good enough to keep them in just about every game this past season despite underwhelming quarterback play. After striking out on Zach Wilson, the Jets would be better off looking at veteran play-caller upgrades that can make them a playoff team immediately. Regardless of who is under center, the Jets will also need to be in the market for some upgrades along the offensive line, particularly at left tackle. 

A training camp knee injury made for a roller coaster start to Mekhi Becton’s career, the player who the Jets envisioned as their left tackle of the future, but two-time national champion blindside protector Broderick Jones should function as the long-term solution for an otherwise uncertain Jets offensive line. He’s an exceptional athlete for the position with a well-earned reputation as a finisher in the run game. 

New England had a disastrous season on offense, and much of that can be attributed back to the Matt Patricia coaching experiment failing as miserably as many expected. The defense remains mostly intact with a plenty of young talent to be excited about. Mac Jones might not be the superstar-caliber quarterback who the Patriots have been accustomed to, but he’s a functional starter you can win with given the right infrastructure.

An upgrade at offensive coordinator alone isn’t quite enough to help Jones reach his potential, and with Jakobi Meyers hitting free agency, the Pats could use another explosive weapon. That’s where Jordan Addison comes into the picture. A route running savant who can stop on a dime and explode out of his breaks to create easy separation, Addison would give Jones a go-to option on offense for years to come. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same: Green Bay finds themselves in the midst of yet another drama-filled offseason revolving around the future of Aaron Rodgers. Whether they try and keep the band together remains to be seen, but Green Bay needs to continue adding playmakers on offense and figure out what to do with the safety position: Adrian Amos is hitting free agency, and Darnell Savage is not quite living up to the billing thus far. 

Alabama’s Brian Branch fits like a glove in their defense and instantly makes the Packers secondary much better on paper. Having played the “star” position under head coach Nick Saban, Branch is a Swiss army knife who can function in traditional safety role or in the slot. The best part of all? Along with being a fluid athlete, Branch is a fantastic open-field tackler despite his size, which is something that will be music to Packers fans’ ears after last season’s struggles in that regard. 

The Carson Wentz trade didn’t work out for the Commanders; it was a curious decision at the time, and it may end up costing this regime big time. With weapons on offense and a tough defense, Washington doesn’t have time to wait on a young quarterback and needs to be involved in the veteran market. There are also some decisions to be made along the offensive line entering free agency, but the value here lies at the cornerback position. 

South Carolina’s Cam Smith is a physical corner who’s comfortable playing from depth.  Washington specializes in zone coverage, and Smith’s ability to break close downhill in a hurry and make plays would be a good match. Smith should be a year-one contributor for a Commanders defense that’s already good, and he has the potential to transcend into that elite category.

Mike Tomlin did it again, somehow leading a Steelers team that looked dead in the water to winning record. Pittsburgh returns their entire starting lineup on offense and their three foundational pillars on defense (Watt, Fitzpatrick and Heyward) are all under contract as well. They need to attempt to upgrade the left side of the offensive line and at the cornerback position. 

The Steelers want to take the football away on man coverage, and adding Devon Witherspoon of Illinois to the mix, an aggressive, hyper-competitive corner who is a disruptive at the catch point, is a perfect match. With MVP-caliber quarterbacks in the division and sprinkled throughout the AFC, adding a top-tier cover corner makes too much sense

The Lions were able to add the draft’s top cornerback prospect with their earlier pick in this mock draft, a move that could pay massive dividends in the long term. Detroit is clearly building something as a team, with a very clear identity of who they want to be offensively, and that’s admirable. Jared Goff has been a steadying force who’s played solid football for them, but his skill set has a hard ceiling. That’s why taking Anthony Richardson at no. 18 and stashing him for the future is a smart move for the Lions if they have higher hopes than being a fringe playoff team. Richardson comes equipped with a rocket launcher of a right arm an athleticism rarely seen at the position. The accuracy concerns are very real, most of which stem from poor lower body mechanics, but Detroit is a good landing spot for him to sit and develop without being thrown into the fire on day one.

Tom Brady’s arrival to the Bay turned the Bucs into instant Super Bowl contenders, but they misjudged their roster last offseason when they decided to run it back one last time. It was difficult to watch this year, and now the organization finds itself in the midst of cap hell with the possibility of Brady retiring or playing elsewhere. With lots of crucial decisions to make from a financial standpoint, their needs are a bit murky. 

Still, Tampa Bay has options here, and one that makes a ton of sense is Georgia’s Kelee Ringo. Jamel Dean and Sean Bunting are both hitting free agency, and the Bucs need to find a suitable replacement to pair with Carlton Davis. Ringo didn’t quite live up to the hype this Fall and take the leap most were expecting, but the tools are certainly enticing: 6-foot-2, 200+ pound corners who can run in the 4.3s don’t grow on trees, and Tampa Bay’s zone-oriented defensive scheme is a good fit for him early on in his career. 

Another lucky team fortunate enough to have two first-round picks, Seattle is well-positioned here to add another impact player on day one. Geno Smith was one of the biggest revelations league-wide this season, proving that he’s capable of being a solid starter moving forward. Seattle’s last draft classwas filled with immediate contributors, and this year could offer more of the same by adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

With him missing nearly the entire 2022 college football season, it’s easy to forget just how impactful Smith-Njigba was for Ohio State’s offense the year prior. With continued development from their youngsters, Seattle is already fulfilling most of their offensive needs on the roster, but they need a chain-mover, a role that Smith-Njigba can fill immediately. He’s a machine in the slot, and while he’s not the flashiest athlete, he understands how to get open and do damage after the catch. 

It feels like the Chargers have really squandered some valuable years of Justin Herbert’s rookie contract. The defense played better down the stretch once the key pieces started to get healthier, and aside from the necessary switch at offensive coordinator, the Chargers main priority this offseason needs to revolve around getting their star quarterback some reliable, healthy weapons. 

They also absolutely have to get faster on offense, but they don’t need to reach for speed in round one: They can find another complimentary piece later in the draft. Instead, they’re well positioned to get the best tight end prospect in this year’s class in Michael Mayer. Mayer is a well-rounded player who’s a mismatch nightmare in the middle of the field and has the potential to turn into one of the leagues best tight ends. 

In back-to-back years, Baltimore has crumbled down the stretch after being unable to withstand long term injuries to Lamar Jackson. Every offseason it feels like the Ravens are in consistently dire need of playmakers, but the front office has largely failed to come through with any. Even if they make amends with Jackson, keeping him in the building for the foreseeable future, they have to find a way to surround him with competent receiving options.

TCU’s Quentin Johnston would be a really attractive option next to a healthy Rashod Bateman, giving Baltimore their most talented receiver duo in quite some time. Johnston is a height/weight/speed freak who stretches defenses vertically but is uniquely dynamic after the catch for a guy with his build. This is the type of investment that would go a long way in terms of building a more functional passing offense in a loaded AFC North division. 

It’s completely fair to acknowledge that the Vikings were one of the league’s biggest overachievers this past season, narrowly squeaking out a ton of wins in the closing moments of games. That caught up to them down the stretch, and the roster is at a crossroads: They have a lot of work to do just to get under the salary cap for next season, and their pass defense last season was abysmal all around (to the point where they it seemed like every opposing quarterback was putting up their best game of the season).

The Vikings need to continue their youth movement on defense, which started last season after selecting Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth. Unfortunately, both of those guys missed significant time, though they should be back healthy for the next campaign. Trenton Simpson is a player they should consider here as Eric Kendricks enters the final year of his contract. Simpson’s a versatile chess piece with an athletic profile that is special for the positon, as he can fly around the field like few can. 

Jacksonville is headed in the right direction and looks poised to own the AFC South for years to come. With Doug Pederson in charge and the rapid development of Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars are ahead of schedule but still in need of upgrades to be taken seriously as a contender in the AFC. Calvin Ridley is on the way to give the offense a true number-one on the outside, but their offensive line could use an upgrade at left guard.

It’s hard to miss O’Cyrus Torrence, 6-5 and nearly 350 pounds of pure power. He’s a monster in the run game, specifically suited for a gap-heavy scheme with plenty of inside zone mixed in. With vice gripes for hands, he offers day-one starter potential along the interior and should be able to help Travis Etienne take another leap in year three. 

After originally being projected to finish near the bottom of the conference, a playoff berth in the first year of Brian Daboll’s tenure was a resounding success. New York seems like they’re going to run it back with Daniel Jones, but they’ll need to add a true number-one receiver to the mix in the offseason. Still, inside linebacker is probably their biggest need right now. If you watched the Giants defense down the stretch, you probably noticed that they were just pulling guys off of the street (literally) to start meaningful games for them at linebacker. That’s certainly not ideal, and the Eagles exposed their secondary in the divisional round of the playoffs. Not only does Drew Sanders offer the fluidity that you look for in three-down linebackers at the next level, he’s also a wrecking ball as a blitzer—which fits in perfectly with what defensive coordinator Wink Martindale likes to do. 

Every mainstream media outlet has taken their turns giving their takes on Dak Prescott following a disappointing loss to the Niners last weekend. Dallas is a well-constructed team with a couple obvious flaws: They need playmakers to pair with CeeDee Lamb, and they need a number-two cornerback option across from Trevon Diggs. With the way the board looks so far, the better value play is at corner.

Dan Quinn is a hot commodity in the head coaching circles these days, but if he’s back in Dallas he’s sure to love what Joey Porter has to offer. With similar size and play style as some of the elite cornerbacks that Quinn coached during his time in Seattle, Porter Jr. should see Dallas as a perfect landing spot. Porter’s length and physicality are a perfect complement to Diggs, and he should be able to fill the massive void on that side of the field as Anthony Brown hits free agency. 

It’s never good when you’re the Super Bowl favorites and find yourselves sitting at home on conference championship weekend. But that’s where Buffalo sits after another disappointing playoff exit. If this year showed us anything, it revealed that the Bills are a top-heavy offense with a couple elite superstars in Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, but the supporting cast simply isn’t reliable enough on a weekly basis.

Buffalo can’t continue on this path of asking Allen to be Superman every Sunday—who better to take some of the load off of his shoulders than the best running back prospect that we’ve seen in several years? It’s hard to find landing spots for running backs in mock drafts due to positional value but make no mistake about it, Robinson is one of the best players in this class. With truly special movement skills including absurd change of direction ability, Robinson can add a different element to this Bills offense and finally provide them not just a steady but explosive running attack.

With Patrick Mahomes nursing a high ankle sprain heading into the AFC Championship game, Cincinnati is well-positioned to make their second straight Super Bowl appearance. While Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase receive most of the headlines, the Bengals defense has been the unsung hero during recent playoff runs. With the offense intact, Cincinnati would be well served to add another defensive back as Eli Apple hits free agency and Chidobe Awuzie recovers from an ACL injury. 

If you like corners who take the football away, Emmanuel Forbes is your kind of guy: He tied the NCAA record for pick-sixes while at Mississippi State. Forbes is a smooth, long cover corner who can function in both zone and man assignments—he’s truly a menace when the football is in the air. Similar to Cam Taylor-Britt, who the Bengals selected last year, Forbes is more physical than his six-foot frame suggests and a willing tackler.

As with their prior selection, Philadelphia honestly has an embarrassment of riches. Free agency pending, there aren’t many glaring needs that make you think the Eagles will be stuck selecting one specific position. Keeping to their previous team-building strategy, Philly can add more depth in the trenches by going with Nolan Smith to close out round one.

Josh Sweat is transforming into a star, but Brandon Graham and Robert Quinn are both entering the twilight of their careers; adding Smith to the mix gives the Eagles a long-term solution at the position. It’s unfortunate that we didn’t see much of him this past season due to a torn pec, but Smith’s previous tape was worthy of first round consideration. With elite lateral agility and surprisingly stout run stopping ability for a player of his stature, Smith has attractive tools to work with. 

Patrick Mahomes proved to everyone this season that he’s still the best player in football, putting together another incredible campaign just months after Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami. Their offense is still their strength, and they’ll go as far as #15 can take them every season. Andy Reid & Co. have enlisted many different players in an effort to mitigate the loss of Hill, but there might be an easier way to do that by taking Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt. He might not have the exact same skill level as The Cheetah, but he can go step-for-step with anyone you put in front of him; watching Hyatt stretch the field vertically after stacking defenders with ease gives major Will Fuller (the healthy version) vibes. Kansas City saw a lot more man coverage this season as defenses weren’t scared of any of Chiefs weapons ability to take the top off. Pairing a 4.3 speedster with a bazakoo-armed gunslinger has unbelievable potential. 

Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt. He might not have the exact same skill level as The Cheetah, but he can go step-for-step with anyone you put in front of him; watching Hyatt stretch the field vertically after stacking defenders with ease gives major Will Fuller (the healthy version) vibes. Kansas City saw a lot more man coverage this season as defenses weren’t scared of any of Chiefs weapons ability to take the top off. Pairing a 4.3 speedster with a bazakoo-armed gunslinger has unbelievable potential.