AEW vs. WWE: Who's Winning the 2019 Wrestling War

Image via Complex Original

When you look at the setup of AEW: Dynamite—everything from the walkways to the decorations to the entrances to the backstage promos to the production values—it all looks colorful and vibrant. The crowd, comprised largely of "smart" fans, cheer and boo vociferously. There's an electricity to AEW's shows that WWE frequently lacks.

WWE has the production values of Dynamite on its Raw and Smackdown shows. But in a head-to-head matchup between NXT and Dynamite? Dynamite is far superior. Part of this is intentional on WWE's part; the company tapes most NXT episodes at Full Sail Live, which only holds 400 people. Everything in NXT is deliberately subdued; the black tarps and low budget presentation gives it a gritty, DIY appeal. But to pull in a general audience's eyeballs, you need some pizzazz, and NXT is somewhat lacking.

Winner: AEW

This is a tough one. On one hand, AEW has Chris Jericho, who is an all-time great from the Attitude Era—the last high-level, full-time performer from a lineup that included "Stone Cold" Steve Austin, The Rock, and Kurt Angle. It has Cody Rhodes, a criminally underrated WWE performer who found his full potential on the indies. It has Kenny Omega, who many consider to be the best professional wrestler not working for WWE. It has the Young Bucks, the most eye-popping, physically impressive tag team working today. And that's just for starters. It has MJF—an unnaturally gifted young heel—the Lucha Brothers, Hangman Page, PAC (formerly Neville), Shawn Spears (formerly Tye Dillinger), SoCal Uncensored, and of course, Jon Moxley (formerly Dean Ambrose).

NXT has AEW beat, just barely. NXT's women's division, led by Shayna Baszler and Io Shirai, is head and shoulders above AEW's in terms of its depth, youth, and consistency. The main heel stable of the brand, the Undisputed Era, is a murderer's row of talent, comprised of Bobby Fish, Kyle O'Reilly, Roderick Strong, and Adam Cole, who's quickly becoming a WWE legend in the making. NXT has Tomasso Ciampa, Finn Bálor, Johnny Gargano, and Velveteen Dream. The wrestlers in NXT, regardless of whether they're being actively utilized, can all work. And although AEW has superior talent at the top of its card, the mid- and lower card talent is wildly inconsistent.

Winner: WWE

If NXT is consistent and steady across the board, then AEW is all about pushing the human body to its limits, It's easy to cut together a 10-minute highlight reel of moments from AEW Dynamite, show it to someone, and say, "Look at this. Isn't that incredible? Isn't this cool?" 

The AEW wrestlers have a hedonistic drive to steal the show. An average episode of Dynamite contains multiple death-defying, high-flying spots. That everyone manages to get up and walk away from them is a minor miracle. If you watch AEW Dynamite, you're always going to see something acrobatic that you haven't seen before.

Winner: AEW

There is nothing on NXT that has garnered the attention and interest comparable to that of AEW's main event storyline. And that ultimately comes down to one man: Chris Jericho. In his last WWE main event run, Jericho had the best promo segment of the past several years: his "Festival of Friendship" with Kevin Owens, which culminated with Owens betraying Jericho's trust. His current storyline, of him versus Cody Rhodes and his "Inner Circle," has some real fire and venom to it; MJF had a perfectly orchestrated turn against Cody, which raised the stakes even further.

WWE got the message, loud and clear; a recent Finn Bálor heel turn created some necessary drama. But we never get the impression that any of these NXT wrestlers really hate each other. There's too much brand solidarity and not enough grudges.

Winner: AEW

NXT has a polished commentary team with Nigel McGuinness and Beth Phoenix on color commentary, and Mauro Ranallo on play-by-play. Mauro is a legitimately renowned broadcaster, and has called boxing title fights and MMA in the past. Nigel adds great context to what the audience is watching, and Beth has steadily improved since taking the gig this past May.

On paper, AEW should have this locked up; the company has legendary play-by-play commentator and WWE Hall of Famer Jim Ross. But J.R., though still one of the best voices in pro wrestling, has lost a step since his late '90s hey-day. Veteran WCW commentator Tony Schiavone picks up some of the slack. But color commentator Excalibur, though decent on the mic, lacks the gravitas of a big-time performer like Beth.

WWE may not hold the lead for long; they've managed to alienate Mauro with unprofessional, childish behavior, and he may not stick around for more of it. But for now, WWE comes out on top.

Winner: WWE

Out of nine head-to-head matchups, with WWE NXT on USA and AEW Dynamite on TBS, AEW has won the ratings war seven out of nine times. The two matchups that WWE won were the most recent two, on November 20 and November 27.

We won't know for a few more weeks if this is a momentum shift or an aberration. The November 20 episode of NXT was right prior to Survivor Series, and the November 27 show was right afterwards. The crossover of Raw and Smackdown Superstars and the hype of the major PPV could explain the viewership boost. But that won't hold as a rationalization if WWE continues its streak.

Winner: AEW (barely)

 

AEW is currently winning the battle. But that's a short-term outlook; at the current rate, especially with their two recent ratings losses, they're going to lose the bigger war.

WWE NXT is a well-oiled machine, it creates a consistently excellent, serious product for week after week. It relies on standard wrestling tropes and established, consistent stakes. And simultaneously, it improvises in the areas that really matter—in promo delivery, for example. It's difficult for there to be a "bad" episode of NXT; a fan can tune in knowing exactly what he or she is going to get it.

AEW Dynamite, on the other hand, is feeding off the enthusiasm and "newness" of it all; they're still playing with convention and figuring out the boundaries of what the audience will tolerate. AEW is trying everything: a little lucha high-flying, a little hardcore death match, a little slow, WWE-style storytelling. And that is to their advantage in the present, but it may be unsustainable long-term. 

Barbed wire and glass shortens careers and has the appeal of a freak show. There's a section of the audience that will find this type of match beyond distasteful, even if they like what's on the rest of the broadcast. NXT is mostly serious; its jokes spring forth naturally from its narratives. Dynamite has several blatant comedy spots (and several comedic performers) scattered throughout its broadcast that are of the "love it or hate it" variety, and have already proven divisive.

Consistency is key. Once AEW's upper card has fought each other several times over and has exhausted every possible permutation and match stipulation? The current bench isn't deep enough to warrant additional challengers.

To win the Wednesday Night Wars, WWE NXT may not have to do much of anything. They just need to stay the course, and wait for AEW Dynamite to self-destruct. And if that doesn't work, they can bring in "surprises" from the main roster to boost viewer interest.

To win the war, AEW needs to decide what it wants to be and consolidate its audience. Is it a stunt-based exhibition? Is it a campy farce? Is it a grounded athletic drama? Despite its best intentions, it can't be everything to everyone. And once the novelty and shine wear off, the company might find itself in a losing position that will be difficult to recover from.