2021 NFL Mock Draft: Predicting Round 1 of the NFL Draft (V1)

Jan 1, 2021; New Orleans, LA, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) reacts after the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

2020 Heisman Trophy Finalist

The Jaguars have long been an uninspiring franchise but that's about the change. Rumors of Urban Meyer taking the job would bring excitement and possibility of a home-run hiring by this ownership. Meyer could opt for a quarterback he's more familiar with in Justin Fields since he recruited him while at the school. But Lawrence is still the heavy favorite despite being outplayed in the Sugar Bowl last week.

The phrase "best prospect since Andrew Luck" has been tired for a while, but stylistically, Lawrence is reminiscent of Luck. He's massive, athletic, has a huge arm with very good accuracy, and is a smart player. He looks for chunk plays effectively and routinely challenges tight passing windows.

The Jaguars aren't as bad off as most top-picking teams in terms of roster quality. A new staff is needed but they can build around some solid young players on both sides of the ball. Enter Fields on an offense with James Robinson and DJ Chark and it's reasonable to expect a jump in 2021. 

2020 Stats: 1,906 YD, 21 TD, 6 INT

The Jets may have screwed themselves out of Lawrence, but they're still snuggled into the second pick. They have the choice of keeping it or moving it for a quarterback-needy team, and really increasing their asset load. First they must decide on what to do with Sam Darnold.

Darnold has largely been the same guy he was in college, which is a turnover-prone thrower with an average arm and plus athleticism. Keeping him over Fields or Zach Wilson would be a massive mistake, in our opinion. Getting a Day 2 pick for Darnold would be an excellent acquisition and chance to revamp this roster under a new staff. 

Fields would be the top quarterback in most classes. He's extremely athletic and smart, with a plus arm and great accuracy. Some like him more than Lawrence, and it's hard to argue that his upside isn't just as good. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

The Dolphins were playing with house money during their playoff push this season. With another Houston Texans pick to add to their young roster, they can afford to swing big. Adding a top receiver is a must early on, and Chase is the perfect fit.

The Dolphins desperately need playmaking at receiver and running back to complete the unit. Any talk of replacing Tua in this class is misguided and ridiculous. He'll flourish when the unit has more around him, and a modern offensive coordinator controlling the system in 2021. 

Chase is younger, bigger, and faster than Heisman Trophy favorite DeVonta Smith so he gets the nod. Chase is the perfect fit, and still allows Miami to double-dip at the position this offseason.

Miami is expected to be active in fixing its offense. They have the money to chase someone like Aaron Jones or Chris Carson at running back and spend their draft assets on better long-term investments. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

I was on board with the Falcons moving on from Matt Ryan after 2020 if the season continued to be disastrous as it was under Dan Quinn. Sure, Ryan's massive cap hit meant they'd eat a bunch of dead money, but a team like San Francisco or Chicago could move early picks for the veteran to compete. Restarting this franchise made sense until Raheem Morris started making his name known as the interim coach.

Don't be surprised if Morris is able to keep this job. If he is, he'll want to win right away to avoid the typical cycle of internal hire and quick-fire process. Replacing Ryan with Zach Wilson or Trey Lance in 2021 simply doesn't make sense; that's a move more for 2022 and beyond.

Enter an impact defender like Parsons, and Morris can be more versatile than now. Parsons can play all linebacker positions or be an edge defender thanks to his elite athleticism and build. He's fascinating, and many evaluators think he'll be a Rookie Defensive Player of the Year candidate anywhere he lands. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

The Bengals, without the services of last year’s No. 1 pick Joe Burrow, showed life at the end of the season. We don't know if Zac Taylor is good, but we know he hasn't lifted this roster like great coaches would. He must protect Burrow to have a job beyond 2021.

Enter Sewell. The athletic tackle is excellent and pairing him with 2020 first-rounder Jonah Williams would give Burrow a bookend to build around for the next decade. Some may prefer a tackle with more length, but Sewell has earned his projection as an excellent pass-protector and high-impact run blocker.

Missing out on Sewell and taking a big-time pass rusher or cornerback wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. This is a great tackle draft and those positions are just as valuable for a bad team like this. 

2020 Heisman Trophy Finalist

This might be the toughest decision of the draft to this point. The Eagles look like another team needing a hard reset, and honestly I think they should look to dump Carson Wentz regardless of the cap implications. That situation is toxic and I don't think Wentz's issues will be fixed to the level that he'll be a plus starter again. 2017 looks like an anomaly.

Flushing his $34 million cap hit via trade barely saves money though and it's possible they'd have to attach a pick to move him. That means he's more likely back to compete for the starting job with Jalen Hurts, likely with a new staff. With that in mind, it makes sense to surround either with an elite receiver.

The projected Heisman Trophy winner out of Alabama is a fantastic playmaker and would give a significant boost to a unit that could explode with a No. 1 receiver. A trio of Smith, Travis Fulgham, and Jalen Reagor should be quite good as they grow together. 

2020 Stats: 3,692 YDs, 33 TDs, 3 INTs

Four straight losses helped the Lions secure a higher draft pick in a class where it could pay off massively. With Robert Saleh's name buzzing as the match for the Lions' open coaching gig, we could see a number of San Francisco assistants making their way to Detroit. That means replicating Kyle Shanahan's excellent offense in the Motor City.

While Matthew Stafford would be a fit for that offense, that era feels ready to end. Stafford's not been the problem in Detroit, but he hasn’t been the solution, he’s expensive, and likely wants to win now. A restart would be good.

Pairing the breakout BYU quarterback and a Shanahan-based offense would be pure bliss. The strong-armed playmaker is excellent on the move and has the traits to become a plus passer quickly. The Lions need excitement and he brings the attitude needed to excel.

2020 Stats: 1 INT, 11 PD

The Carolina Panthers have two major goals for this offseason: keep offensive coordinator Joe Brady and increase the amount of playmakers on defense. The bones of the team are solid, and Teddy Bridgewater was a hit signing. This is one of my favorite teams to watch every week.

As tempting as a star pass catcher like Kyle Pitts is, adding a pass rusher or big-time cornerback is a must here. Enter star corner Surtain. He has the pedigree thanks to elite ball skills and polished technique.

Pairing him with Donte Jackson and Jeremy Chinn would give the Panthers one of the better young secondaries in the league. There's already whispers they'll chase a top pass rusher like Shaquil Barrett or Bud Dupree to complement Brian Burns. One solid offseason could propel this team into real playoff contention quickly. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

I expect the Broncos to be active in finding a new quarterback, making this pick a projection based on their fortunes in the trade market. Stafford will be the hot name if the new Lions staff wants to rebuild and the Broncos are a natural fit. Getting Stafford could cost them this pick based on the competition they'd have for him.

Let's say they keep the pick and get Darnold for their second-round pick, Drew Lock plays well down the stretch, or another vet comes cheaper than this pick. Adding a cornerback is an absolute must for a defense brimming with talent across it. 

2020 third-round pick Michael Ojemudia has been a hit, and Caleb Farley would be an ideal running mate thanks to his ability to play man and zone coverage. He's instinctive and sticky in coverage, allowing coach Vic Fangio to play whatever scheme he wishes on any down.

2020 Stats: 2 INT, 6 PD 

The Cowboys made a huge mistake when they let Byron Jones walk last offseason. The cornerbacks left on the roster are all replaceable, and have contributed to why Dallas was such a disappointment this season. They have tough decisions to make on how to proceed forward with this staff, Dak Prescott's contract situation, and how to manage an expensive roster after wasting a year.

Adding an impact cornerback is tough to do, and the last time Dallas picked in the top 10, they could've had Jalen Ramsey instead of Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is a good back, but clearly they made the wrong decision. They can somewhat rectify their need for secondary help by adding Horn.

The South Carolina stud has everything needed to help right away. He has elite length, instincts, and ball skills. The Cowboys would be able to be more multiple in their coverages with his talent.

2020 Stats: 25 REC, 557 YD, 4 TD

The Giants honestly need a quarterback, but it's doubtful they'd make that happen already thanks to the insane fluidity and incompetence in the NFC East. They have another need at receiver since Darius Slayton is the only long-term talent worth keeping, plus a pass rusher and help at cornerback. I like the value of Waddle the most, so he gets the nod.

Waddle will win one-on-one matchups with ease even in the NFL. He's incredibly smooth and dynamic as a route-runner, and is a terror after the catch. His ability to play next to Slayton is key here, and both are versatile enough to avoid skill set overlap that renders one less valuable. 

Entering 2021 with Slayton, Waddle, Saquon Barkley, and Evan Engram is a really good cast for Daniel Jones to prove himself with. There's no more excuses with that type of core, plus potentially a veteran like Breshad Perriman or keeping Golden Tate to round out the group. 

2020 Stats: 149 YD, 2 TD, 1 INT

The 49ers may have played themselves out of a top quarterback prospect this year, but that's an incredibly impressive accomplishment considering their injuries. The 49ers get lucky in this mock and get a great value and upside swing in Lance. 

He has a big arm, great athleticism, and knack for playmaking. He needs time to fix his in-pocket mechanics and footwork consistency, but they're not make-or-break bad at this time. This would allow San Francisco to move on from Jimmy G's huge salary and injury-ridden body.

The dream for San Francisco would be to land Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford and improve the ceiling for this offense. Their own cap restraints will limit their opportunities to be creative, though.

Size: 6'3", 305 LB

The unfortunate reality of suffering from such a letdown season is losing a valuable assistant or two. The Chargers could fire Anthony Lynn and start over, but losing Pep Hamilton as quarterbacks coach would sting. Rookie Justin Herbert has exceeded all expectations and Hamilton surely helped. 

That's the reality of the league, though. The Chargers need to protect Herbert as best as they can, and the best value here is Rashawn Slater. The athletic left tackle has excellent traits and technique already. He could even leap over Sewell thanks to his ideal build. The Chargers could justify taking a top receiver or pass rusher too, but building the foundation of the offense is the best play. 

2020 Stats: 9 SACK, 24 SOLO

After a slow start to 2020, the Vikings looked ready to rollover and get a fresh start across the board. The team bailed on edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue just a few weeks after trading picks for him because they were out of contention and recouping some value made sense. But five wins in six weeks had them in playoff contention and the outlook of the team is stronger entering the offseason.

If Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman stick around in 2021, they need to continue building the defense. A primary edge rusher is a massive need even with Danielle Hunter coming back from injury. Enter Jones.

He is a speedy presence who is dominated his competition this year. He has one of the fastest get-offs in the class and that could lead to an early impact on a team that has snaps to give on passing downs. 

2020 Stats: 43 REC, 770 YD, 12 TD 

Trying to predict what Bill Belichick will do is one of the toughest things every offseason. It doesn’t look like Cam Newton will be back in 2021, despite his best efforts to piece together a garbage offensive unit, and the options to replace him this offseason could be slim. Could they reach for Alabama's Mac Jones here?

It seems unlikely, and New England will exhaust all veteran options first. Belichick has to address playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Adding a dynamic tight end in Pitts would be ideal. Pitts is as smooth as a receiver, but can line up inside and punish linebackers. He's a premier prospect, and getting to 15th would qualify as a huge steal.

2020 Stats: 5 SACK, 25 SOLO, 3 FF

I so badly wanted the Cardinals to take CeeDee Lamb last year, and would love to see them add Pitts this draft, but this isn't the draft to overlook a position that's simply more valuable for team building. There's not a great amount of pass rushers in the class, and getting a speedster who can compliment Chandler Jones in 2021 is huge. Texas' Ossai is the perfect fit.

Watch any Longhorns game and you'll see Ossai display the traits of a potential star off the edge. He's not great against the run right now, but his build looks capable of adding a little bulk without losing his quick burst. If he can be an 8-sacks-a-year guy, no one will really care about his run defense anyways.

Kliff Kingsbury and company must win in 2021 despite their need to revamp their cornerback room and add impact guys. Arizona right now is a fun team with the ability to pull upsets but the expectation is to draft better and really compete soon with Kyler Murray. Ossai will help accomplish that.

2020 Stats: 2 SACK, 12 SOLO

Derek Carr entered the year on the hot seat, but he's earned his keep for the immediate future thanks to more aggressive play. The Raiders offense has been solid despite mediocre receiver play and offensive line injuries, meaning it's time to bolster that unit in free agency and the middle rounds of the draft. But the impact players are needed on defense.

Taking another edge defender isn't a massive indictment on their recent investments, but rather a sign they don't have a true creator at the position. Clelin Ferrell is a nice piece and Maxx Crosby is solid, but Paye has the athletic upside to be a true star and make this unit take a huge leap. Paye has freakish movement ability and sky-high potential to win one-on-one.

2020 Stats: 4 SACK, 36 SOLO, 2 FF, 4 INT

The Dolphins already added an offensive playmaker earlier on, and now they get a defensive difference maker in linebacker Collins. Collins was the most impactful linebacker in the country this season and it wasn’t particularly close. He's a do-it-all defender who excels at finishing plays with impact.

Miami has been extremely well coached, but there's still a lack of talent at several positions. Adding a linebacker who excels on third downs and on chaotic plays would be a fantastic weapon for Brian Flores to have at his disposal. Collins can be a big nickel slot option or slide inside in coverage or blitz. 

Adding a pass rusher, a rangy safety, or an offensive lineman could tempt Miami as well if the right talent is on the board. But Collins has the right value and fit for this program.

2020 Stats: 25 REC, 270 YD, O TD

Washington needs more playmakers badly. They also need a quarterback, but there's not one on the board in this situation. Flipping spots with the Eagles in the standings should cost them Wilson or Lance, but this coaching staff would rather get to the playoffs in 2020 than worry about the draft. 

In this situation, adding speed next to Terry McLaurin is a must. Washington’s receiving corps is among the worst in the league. Rondale Moore is a phenomenal playmaker and falling this far would even be a steal.

Moore, McLaurin, and Antonio Gibson would give this roster a real chance to make moves in 2021. The question of who plays quarterback next year is a legitimate one. Expect them to be in the hunt for a veteran if they fall to this range.

2020 Stats: 36 REC, 472 YD, 2 TD

Like Denver, Chicago is ripe for a veteran quarterback acquisition in 2021. They should've given Bridgewater, Newton, or Jameis Winston a chance over Nick Foles this past year and are now paying for their mistake. Maybe they're the team that takes a risk on Wentz, Garoppolo, or Darnold if those players are replaced.

Otherwise the Bears will rely on the draft to find a quarterback, but Jones and Kyle Trask aren't first-round talents. They need more playmakers on offense even if Allen Robinson is retained (that's unlikely), so picking the best explosive talent is a must. 

Bateman is a big-bodied receiver who moves like a smaller player. He has soft, sure hands and good route-running speed and smoothness. He's the ideal replacement for Robinson if he leaves, and even if not, they're both good enough to move around in formations.

Size: 6'4", 315 LB 

Much like the Jets needing to protect their investment at quarterback, the Jaguars have to do the same. Their offensive line isn't a complete disaster thanks to their bookends being so good, but upgrading the interior will help Lawrence. The new head coach, whether it's an offensive mind or defensive mind, will appreciate the sheer tenacity and well-roundedness of Davis.

A stellar guard for Ohio State, Davis is ready to play Year 1 at a high level. He's a powerful downhill blocker in the run game but quick and smooth enough to pull as the lead on gap plays. His scheme versatility makes him incredibly attractive.

2020 Stats: 3 INT, 6 PD, 1 FF

The Colts are another team expected to look at different quarterback options this offseason. Darnold has been the popular name thrown around, but I wouldn't be stunned if they get Stafford or have to stay with Philip Rivers another season. Rivers has been fine considering the lack of a consistent running game and injuries at receiver.

The Colts could justify drafting a receiver, but it makes more sense to sign Robinson, Corey Davis, or JuJu Smith-Schuster and continuing to develop Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell. That means addressing their cornerback room is a must. 

Xavier Rhodes has had a solid bounce back season, but is a short-term option, and 2019 second-rounder Rock Ya-Sin has been a massive disappointment.

Florida State’s Samuel has the skill set to take the starting job and run away with it as a rookie. He has great confidence, physicality, and ball skills. He's the perfect fit for Indianapolis' zone tendencies and adds a playmaking presence. 

2020 Stats: 1.5 SACK, 41 SOLO, 1 INT, 3 FF

The Browns have enjoyed a terrific season, but there's a slew of needs to be addressed this offseason. The end of the Odell Beckham-era looks more likely than ever, so a speedy receiver like Rondale Moore to replace him could be similar to the Vikings replacing Stefon Diggs with Justin Jefferson. But the receiving depth in this class is awesome so we're going to add a defensive playmaker first.

Notre Dame’s Owusu-Koramoah is the best coverage linebacker in the class thanks to elite range. He'll immediately be an asset in the passing game, and is the rare coverage linebacker who plays with physicality in the run game. Cleveland tried investing into linebackers Sione Takitaki, Jacob Phillips, and Mack Wilson, but none have stuck as reliable options.

Owusu-Koramoah and BJ Goodson would be a solid starting duo in nickel looks and help provide underneath support for Cleveland's more athletically limited safeties. He helps solve several issues across the critical middle of the field.  

2020 Stats: 1 INT, 5 PD

The Titans are a solid team, but have some tough decisions to make this offseason. Their decision to not give Corey Davis his fifth-year option looks like the wrong one, and they are faced with having to pay him with a new deal or losing him. They also could use a pass-rusher and help in the secondary.

Some of these issues can be handled before the draft. Re-signing Davis might cost Malcolm Butler and Adam Humphries, but that's a fair trade off considering neither of those two have earned their big salaries. A second pass-rusher across from Harold Landry is going to be the other temptation depending on how the board falls.

We had a gigantic run on edge guys already, meaning we'll look at corner depth here. Georgia's Campbell can play press man or zone, and is a large presence on the outside. This secondary could use his length and physicality. 

2020 Stats: 8.5 SACK, 22 SOLO, 4 FF

Another speed rusher who can help a playoff team is Ojulari. He's expected to be a big combine performer and it's evident why on tape. Ojulari has wrecked blockers over the last two years because he can bend around the contact and fight through resistance in a way the NFL starters do.

The Buccaneers would be thrilled to find him in the 20s. They may let Barrett walk in free agency due to his high cost, and finding an affordable replacement makes sense due to their other needs and upcoming free agents. Ojulari and a veteran like Ryan Kerrigan or Aldon Smith could be a cheaper alternative and still be highly effective.

Expect the Buccaneers to retain as much talent as they can and be aggressive while they still have Tom Brady. While Brady hasn't been great every week, he's been solid, and this team isn't far off from the league's top competitors as far as overall roster. 

2020 Stats: 42 REC, 660 YD, 7 TD

The Baltimore Ravens finished the season strongly as the offense came alive. They're an extremely dangerous team once again, but the weakness is obvious. The Ravens lack explosive, reliable options at wide receiver.

This draft is extremely deep with options but Ohio State's Olave stands out here. A crisp route runner with excellent hands and solid deep speed, he's been a productive star since Day 1 for a great offense. Like J.K. Dobbins, Olave can immediately start and upgrade the entire unit. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

We've already given the Jets a star quarterback in Justin Fields, and they may have another second-round pick for moving Darnold by this point, so we have to make sure the offense is set for Fields to thrive. Adding a bookend tackle across from stud left tackle Mekhi Becton is an absolute must.

Getting Darrisaw this late would be a huge steal. The athletic tackle has been excellent in 2020 and has every physical trait needed to be a star in pass protection. His mobility and range of movement in the run game would also be a critical boost to a non-existent run game.

Size: 6'7", 309 LB

Replacing veterans with affordable rookies is risky, but necessary for contenders. The Steelers have to trim their cap numbers in 2021, and must deal with tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Matt Feiler as free agents on top of cap limitations. That means drafting a starter seems inevitable.

Cosmi would be an ideal fit for the offense. The 6'7", 309-pounder will benefit from offensive line coach Shaun Surratt, who has quickly earned a good reputation for his work after Mike Munchak left. Cosmi's strong frame just needs a little time to increase his functional strength and clean up his hand usage, and he projects as a good starter fairly early in his career. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

As good as the New Orleans Saints are, it'll be a fascinating offseason for them. The Drew Brees-era is ending, and maybe Taysom Hill will be given the reigns. If so, the Saints must continue to build a strong roster around Hill and replace some aging, expensive veterans.

2016 first-round defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins looks replaceable and the team has to avoid big-money deals with their cap situation being so tight. USC's Tufele is a big, 6'3", 305-pounder who can get into the backfield and cause havoc as a pass-rusher like Rankins did before his injuries. His 2019 season was one of the most impressive of any interior defensive linemen in the country.

Size: 6'6", 330 LB

The Bills had a fantastic breakout season thanks to Josh Allen's improvement and the addition of Stefon Diggs. The defense has taken a step back and there's a huge need for a cornerback across from Tre'Davious White, but ensuring the offense remains a strength is critical. Allen needs competent blocking and the run game can't be forgotten as part of their identity.

Enter Tennessee guard Smith. The powerful run blocker is a massive presence, and helps the Bills add a reliable body to a position that was ravaged by injuries in 2020. It's possible the Bills find two new guards this offseason and landing Smith certainly fixes the position for the next five years. 

2020 Stats: 48 REC, 731 YD, 10 TD

Imagine how the Packers would be even better if they hadn't wasted their first two picks of the 2020 draft with Jordan Love and AJ Dillon. Regardless of the blunder, the Packers are one of the best NFC teams and easily could make the Super Bowl. They should get aggressive this offseason and try to actually help Aaron Rodgers.

The Odell Beckham-to-Green Bay rumors are mostly fan made, but it'd be a phenomenal fit if it were to happen. Or the Packers could steal from the Bears by signing Robinson away and keep this pick. Failing to land another plus starting receiver means they should use their first-rounder on a true compliment to Davante Adams.

A downfield presence like Marshall gets the nod in this mock. The 6'3", 200-pound speedster has had two great seasons at LSU, and is a big-play threat every pass. He's already capable of winning on vertical routes and everything that plays off go routes, like curls, comebacks, and dig routes, meaning he can play right away for this offense.

2020 Stats: 70 REC, 984 YD, 10 TD

The rich get even richer on offense in this mock. The Chiefs have supreme flexibility thanks to their affordable and solid defense being in place, and the knowledge that Andy Reid will get the most out of whatever offensive linemen he trots out. A top-tier guard is tempting, but receiver is a real need for this offense in 2021.

Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson will be free agents and it's hard to justify bringing either back unless Watkins takes another pay cut. His injuries keep his value low and his per-game production has dipped to career-low levels. Robinson hasn't been an impactful player either, leaving the bulk of the work to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Adding Toney to this unit would be insane. Toney is what the Chiefs thought they were getting in Mecole Hardman, which is a terrifying deep threat who can run more than one route effectively. He'd seamlessly fill Watkins' role and provide a boost on special teams when Hill isn't returning punts.