Lamar Jackson has been incredible and entering Week 14, it looks like the MVP award is his to lose.
Those lucky enough to throw down on Jackson before the season kicked off got him at 50-1 odds, but the Ravens QB has been so dominant, so devastating through three-quarters of the season that oddsmakers now have him as a 1-3 favorite to win the NFL's top individual award.
With such absurd odds, is there any value taking Russell Wilson, the second choice on the board, at 3.5-1? I guess that kind of depends on how strongly you feel Jackson has wrapped it up and what kind of gambler you are.
The Ravens remaining schedule features games against the Bills, a Thursday night game with the Jets, Browns, and Steelers. Jackson had two of his worst games against his division rivals and the Bills are one of the better defenses in the NFL. While Jackson has been incredible and keeps shutting up the doubters (if any are even remaining), could a couple of stumbles clear the way for Wilson?
The Seahawks get the Rams on Sunday night followed by the Panthers, Cardinals, and one more marquee matchup with the Niners. You could argue that Wilson will have the bigger stage to dazzle voters over the season's final four weeks compared to Jackson and snag an award which he's never won even though it feels like he's been in the mix a lot for it over the last handful of years.
All that being said, we're not advising you to throw down on Wilson because the idea that the majority of voters are going to drastically change their mind about Jackson—even if he finishes the season putting up even just average numbers—feels preposterous. How bad would Lamar have to be and how amazing would Russ have to be for Wilson to slide past the younger competition in the minds of voters? It sounds like too ridiculous of a hypothetical to seriously ponder. But if you're somebody that loves value and loves to fade a favorite, Wilson's your only choice since Christian McCaffrey, at 25-1, has the third shortest odds on the board. And since the Panthers just fired their coach and are 5-7 on the season, he ain't the MVP.
Broncos (+9.5) at Texans
This one opened at 7.5 and the money came flooding in on Houston after its big win over New England. But we're rolling with Denver here because this sets up perfectly as a letdown situation for the Texans. In a neck-and-neck battle for the AFC South, Houston hits the road in Week 15 to meet the Titans in Nashville. They could easily be looking ahead, plus Houston happens to be 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. Fade Deshaun and company.
Jaguars (+3) vs. Chargers
Why the Jags? Philip Rivers barely has a better QBR than the newly installed Jacksonville starter Gardner Minshew, the Chargers are just 3-7 ATS this season, and people have actually been loading up on them which should scare you to death.
Giants (+8.5) vs. Eagles
The Eagles shouldn't be 8.5-point favorites against the Temple Owls, let alone any NFL team. It's a division/rivalry game so I'll always advocate taking as many points as you can get. And the books are giving you a ton here. Yeah, the Giants are putrid. But shockingly, New York is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games while Philly is just 2-4 ATS at home this season.
Lions (+14) at Vikings
Even with the Lions QB issues, this line seems a bit crazy. Do it for me, David Blough.
Buccaneers (-1) vs. Colts
Things are trending south for the Colts and the Bucs can put up a ton of points. I think they roll.
Chiefs (+4) at Patriots
Well, I think the Chiefs will win this game, so why not take the points.