We interrupt our weekly breakdown of lines and trends to look at Super Bowl odds. Because playoff races are starting to take shape and we're more than halfway through the NFL season, why the hell not take a look at the futures market?
Odds change throughout the season so it's interesting to note who the books are favoring the second week of November. Yes, there are seven weeks remaining in the season and a lot will change, but if you're looking to lock in value on a squad so you can hit it big on the Big Game, here's some advice: Teams who have Super Bowl odds around 10-1 or shorter entering the season have won five of the last six Super Bowls, according to The Action Network.
After Week 10, here are the current Super Bowl favorites...
Patriots: 3-1
49ers: 5.5-1
Saints: 6-1
Ravens: 7-1
Chiefs: 9-1
Packers: 12-1
Seahawks: 16-1
Eagles: 16-1
Vikings: 16-1
Cowboys: 30-1
Out of that group, only the Chiefs, Patriots, and Saints had Super Bowl odds 10-1 or shorter entering Week 1. Yes, outliers do exist. The Eagles, for instance, had odds of 40-1 to win Super Bowl before the season began when they won it all. But if you believe in trends that means it's either Kansas City's, New England's, or New Orleans's Super Bowl to lose. And out of that group, the Chiefs at 9-1 present the best value on the board.
Seattle, though, at 16-1, does look mighty enticing after that resounding, yet ugly, win over the Niners on Monday.
Season records:
Cap: 17-12-1
Chopz: 13-15-2
Week 11
Cap
Texans (+4) at Ravens
Majority of the bets (66 percent) and and money (66 percent) is coming in on the Ravens so I'll gladly fade the public's enthusiasm with Baltimore and take some points. Plus, Deshaun Watson has an impressive record against the spread as a road underdog (10-2).
Vikings (-10.5) vs. Broncos
Laying a ton of points here which I normally detest, but The Action Network's Matthew Freidman unearthed some great stats about Minnesota at home under Mike Zimmer. The Vikings are 30-13-1 ATS since Zimmer took over as coach in 2014 and as a non-divisional home favorite, Freidman says the Vikings are a scintillating 19-3-1 ATS. I've faded the Vikings basically all season long. Time to finally cash in on them.
Bears (+6.5) at Rams
Los Angeles shouldn't be favored by a touchdown and the hook against anyone right now since they're incredibly banged up. But to be favored by that many against a team that's allowing the fourth fewest points in the NFL and is top 10 against the run? GTFOH. Trusting Mitchell Trubisky to cover a game for you is a dicey proposition, but is it any dicier than asking Jared Goff to cover that big of a number right now?
Chopz
Browns (-3) vs. Steelers
Guys, I know I sound like a broken record, but the Browns will cover against the Steelers. It's going to happen. Thanks me later.
Chiefs -3.5 vs. Chargers
The Chiefs are about to bounce back in a major way on Monday night. They win by two scores.
Jaguars +3 at Colts
My main man Nick Foles is BACK. The Colts have been shaky of late and the Jags are coming off a bye with their starting QB back in the lineup. I think the Jags are a smart pick here.
