We gotta bring it up again because the percentages for some of the Week 10 matchups are already off the charts and it's only Thursday.
If you've been checking us out on a weekly basis, you know we've mentioned be weary of throwing down on teams garnering a large percentage of the wagers. Teams earning at least 60 percent of the wagers placed on them are 24-31 ATS through the first nine weeks, covering at a disappoiinting 43 percent clip. It only gets slightly better when you look at teams getting 70 percent of the bets placed on them or higher. Teams that meet that criteria are 12-14 ATS the spread through nine weeks, covering at a 46 percent clip.
So what does it all mean, what's it all for? It's further evidence that you need to fade the public—most especially when one team is getting the majority of the bets placed on 'em. The public just can't help itself, backing what they justify to be obvious winners (no matter the spread and/or perceived lack of value). When you see one side capturing most of the action, it should be a warning—or better yet, an undervalued invitation to cash in a ticket.
Season records:
Cap: 14-12-1
Chopz: 12-14-1
Week 9
Cap
Raiders (+1) vs. Chargers
Can't trust the Chargers to build on a big win when they've been so disappointing and confounding in 2019. All the trends will tell you to take the San Diego Chargers of Los Angeles, but I'm taking the home dog on Thursday night. Oakland is only getting 32 percent of the wagers in this one and looking way more competent now than back in September.
Steelers (+3.5) vs. Rams
Pittsburgh is only getting 30 percent of the wagers placed on it so far this week. Not sure why gamblers are too shook to take the Steelers when they've played nothing but close games against some of the NFL'sbest (except, of course, in Week 2 vs. the Patriots). Maybe it's because the Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games but all that says to me is they're due to catch an L. On top of the thorough research outlined above, you're giving me three and the hook? No way I can justify taking Los Angeles here.
Seahawks (+6) at 49ers
Going against the grain here because Seattle is currently getting around 65 percent of the wagers in this matchup, but I can't pass up getting a touchdown in this division game. Behind MVP candidate Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are 3-1 ATS on the road so far this season and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Niners. Take. The. Points.
Chopz
Browns (-3) vs. Bills
This week's slate is pretty thin, with six teams enjoying their bye weeks, which brings be back to my old friend, the Cleveland Browns. This shit is bound to turnaround at some point. Big win coming on Sunday.
Giants -2.5 vs. Jets
The battle of NYC couldn't be any worse this season. Both the Giants and Jets are a dumpster fire, but when it comes to levels of said dumpster fire, nobody really compares to the Jets. Hell, they lost to the Dolphins. Give me the Giants and the points.
Cardinals +4.5 at Buccaneers
Lord, this slate is awful. I guess give me Kyler and the guys on the road with the points.
