7 Reasons the Spurs (Not the Warriors) Will Win the West

Image via Complex Original

The Spurs didn’t get anywhere near the attention they deserved last year because of the Warriors’ pursuit 73 wins. San Antonio won 67 games last year, something that just eight teams have done in the last 25 years. And this historic team returns four of its five starters and all six of its top scorers—in addition to adding All-Star Pau Gasol.

San Antonio was the best defensive team in the NBA last season, holding opponents to just 92.9 points per game. They look pretty good on D this season as well, ranking 3rd while averaging 96.1 points per game allowed.

The Warriors cannot boast this kind of defensive success. They finished 19th in the NBA last season, allowing 104.1 points per game. They’ve been even worse through 10 games this year, allowing a 108.2 points per game—tied for 21st in the NBA. Their offensive prowess will still allow them to be a top-two team in the conference, but the Spurs will undoubtedly have the advantage in any potential head-to-head series on the defensive end.

It’s not that the Warriors have bad coaching; Steve Kerr didn’t make the finals twice by accident. It’s that he’s in relatively uncharted waters this year. He has to manage four NBA superstars, and he’s only been a coach for two years. Managing four superstars can be difficult.

Meanwhile, Gregg Popovich has made the playoffs in all 18 full seasons he’s been a head coach and he’s won championships in three decades. “Pop” is going to work his magic again this season, and if a Warriors-Spurs conference finals becomes an X’s and O’s battle, there’s no one better at that than Popovich. 

Circumspect veterans like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have been in San Antonio forever, and have become an essential part of the team’s success. The Spurs’ locker room has to be the most boring in the NBA. There are never any unnamed sources complaining about feuds, nobody ever vents in public about not getting the ball, and the mundane personalities on the team keep them out of the headlines and in the win column. 

Golden State, on the other hand, does not have that veteran player with multiple championships on their side. Andre Iguodala is a fantastic presence, but he’s a far cry from a Tony Parker or a Pau Gasol in the rings column. San Antonio has a clear edge here.

The Spurs have bench options that include Patty Mills and multi-time All Stars Manu Ginobili and David Lee. Golden State has Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, and David West at the top of the bench, but the rest of it is pretty thin. It includes players like Ian Clark, who has never averaged more than four points per game in a season, Patrick McCaw, a rookie who was drafted in the second round, and internet meme legend JaVale McGee. So if one of the big four gets hurt, we could see a no-name player get a serious uptick in minutes.

It’s championship or bust for the Warriors. If they don’t win it all, they will have failed miserably. That’s a tough standard for any team to live up to. 

The Spurs have no such expectation.  They have the privilege of being able to fly a bit under the radar since all of the pressure is on Golden State. If the Spurs had lost to the Lakers in the fashion the Warriors did, it wouldn’t be nearly as big of a story. They lost to the Pelicans by 14 last November and it was hardly a headline. 

But since everything the Warriors do gets media attention, and since they have title-or-bust expectations, losses like this will only add pressure to an already volatile situation in Golden State. The Spurs may not be the favorites to win the West now, but don’t be surprised if they unseat the Warriors for this position at some point this season.