The old saying goes, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. While the NBA isn't perfect, the machine is rolling along too well at the moment to tinker with the engine. Thus, Adrian Wojnarowski’s latest report—where he states there's optimism between the owners and players that they'll sign a new collective bargaining agreement in the coming weeks to avoid a lockout—isn't that surprising. The NBA is way too smart to risk a lockout right now. In fact, they'd be downright dumb if they let these negotiations get to the point of a lockout.
There's too much money at stake and, unlike 2011 (when a lockout shuttered the NBA’s doors into December), the owners and players simply cannot risk putting their booming product on the sideline. If you forgot, the 2011 lockout ended with a near 50/50 split of all basketball-related income and a soft salary cap to keep both sides happy. And with the league signing a massive nine-year, $24 billion TV deal with ESPN and Turner Sports in 2014, this means that the money is flowing in from all sides.
Things are good right now for the NBA and the NBA knows it.
Sure, the owners could try to strong arm the players and take a higher percentage of income. The players could fight back and demand the age limit be taken out of the draft. There are plenty of things the sides could bicker over, but it appears instead they will opt for cohesion. They're not dumb enough to keep their increasingly popular product off the court and away from fans. And although Woj wrote there will likely be smaller changes in the next CBA agreement—such as a new rookie wage scale—it certainly seems like the pain of the last lockout paved the way for the smoothness of these negotiations.
It also helps that the league is as popular as ever, especially now with the Kevin Durant/Steph Curry Warriors in the fold. Yes, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said that KD to the Warriors—which was allowed to happen due to the soft salary cap negotiated in 2011—wasn't the best thing for the league, but you know deep down he's giddy about the possibilities.
The Warriors will be must-watch TV, even if fans are just tuning in to root against them. It will be like the Big Three Miami Heat on steroids, only now LeBron James is both your champion and protagonist. Things are good right now for the NBA and the NBA knows it. The 2016 Finals ratings were massive and the league followed it up with an active and widely publicized offseason that kept the NBA relevant even while no actual basketball was being played.
The ceiling for NBA popularity is still up in the air, and despite the NFL's TV ratings taking a tumble so far this year, it's doubtful the NBA could ever really catch-up. The goal shouldn't be to catch the NFL, though. The goal for the NBA should be to continue doing what they're doing to make their product as globally accepted and cross-cultural as possible. While the NFL spends time punishing its own clubs for engaging in social media, the NBA embraces online fan interaction unlike any other professional sports league.
This isn’t to say everything the NBA does is right and everything the NFL does is wrong, but the way the two leagues are run plays a lot into the public perception of each. Adam Silver isn’t out here suspending and bringing LeBron to court over deflated basketballs. The NBA is a star focused league and they cater to that. They cater to the big markets and what the fans want. This is why you’ll see the new-look Knicks on national television all season. They bring the fans what they want. That includes avoiding a lockout, which now seems likely. Props to Adam Silver, the players, and the owners. They're just too smart to screw up a good thing.
