2016 AFL Season Preview

Buddy's back

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AFL has been pretty wild over the last six months. Nude photo scandals, ex-players knocked out, current players jaws broken, links to organised crime, Ricky Nixon emerging as the slimiest man in Melbourne, and of course, the Bombers scandal. It seems like the whole city goin’ against the AFL.

On Thursday night, the league finally gets a chance to play the game on its own terms again. While the Carlton-Richmond curtain raiser might not be quite the clash it has been in the past, the return of Buddy, the emergence of the Bulldogs, the recruitment of the Cats and the intrigue around the Bombers is sure to make this a fascinating weekend of footy.

Not unlike the Geelong midfield, we've assembled our own dream team; Complex writers Andrew Nguyen and Will Brown team with Matt Scully of sports travel website Sports Where I Am to pick apart the chances of your team in 2016. 

 

 

Adelaide Crows

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Andrew: On the wrong end of the biggest player movement this offseason (Patrick Dangerfield leaving to Geelong), Adelaide is looking to overhaul the entire club this season. With a new coach implementing a “total football” style of play, look for Rory Sloane to pick up where Danger left off in the midfield and captain Tex Walker to lead a potent forward line. With such big changes, Adelaide are a 50/50 to either storm into the finals or completely implode this season.

Will: The passing of Phil Walsh last year shook the football world to its core. That the Crows made it to a semi-final in his honour was an inspiring effort. In 2016, new coach Don Pyke is charged with the task of pushing Adelaide deeper into September without Patrick Dangerfield. They have elite players on every line and Brad Crouch looks ready to flaunt it, but I think the pressure transferred onto the midfield will take its toll. They’re in that group that could finish anywhere from 5-12, but I have them finishing 9th (apologies Crows fans).

Matt: New coach Don Pyke seems savage. In the short time he has been with the Crows, no favours have been afforded. Troy Menzel was pretty much told that he needs to be throwing up more at training before he gets a game (or words to a similar effect…) I have to say, I’m probably more excited about the potential application of Rookie Tom DoeDee’s name. I think this is the closest we will get to a Gronk-Like response to deflateGate.

Team mate: ‘Hey, did DoeDee get away from you today’, 

‘Player: ‘Who?’, 

Team mate: ‘DoeDeeeeeeeeez Nuts’

Andrew: A horror year for the Lions, buried at the bottom of the table for 22 out of 23 rounds, but it looks like they can come back and be a competitive side again in 2016. On paper, Tom Rockliff, Dayne Beams, Dayne Zorko and Mitch Robinson look like a great athletic midfield. In reality, they have a boom or bust quality that will be enthralling to watch. They’ll likely lose way more than they win, since they are almost invisible everywhere else, but there’s tiny bit of hope.

Will: A combination of poor administration and rough luck has kept Brisbane in a cycle of crappiness since the glory years of the early 2000s. Lions fans will be hoping this current rebuild is more methodical than the last. That they now have the youngest list in the competition is a good sign. The midfield, if it can stay healthy, is decent. Unfortunately, at the extremities of the ground too many players are either inexperienced or incompetent. Their goal will be to break out of the bottom four, but I don’t like their chances.​

Matt: I’m pretty sure there were more winners of the 2015 B&F count than there were to the last few Lions games. 2016 will be a different story though; the Lions have recruited really well in the last 2 off-seasons. Talented players such as Dayne Beams, Mitch Robinson, Tom Bell and Ryan Bastinac should equal a greater level of competitiveness this year. No doubt that No. 2 draft pick, Josh Schache will be a crowd favourite too. 

Andrew: The tragedy of the Blues looks to continue this year as Josh Kennedy, Eddie Betts and Mitch Robinson look to have great a 2016, albeit for other teams.  It must be pretty depressing to be a Carlton supporter in recent years, so let’s not get into how a piecemeal Essendon team has better odds to win the flag than an established team like Carlton. At least they have Patrick Cripps, who the entire Blues organization are hoping doesn’t flame out into mediocrity after last year’s promising debut.

Will: We all know it’s going to be a grim year for Carlton from a win/loss perspective. But if fans are realistic they can still find joy in the development of young players and the implementation of Brendan Bolton’s new and hopefully effective brand. Number one pick Jacob Weitering already looks worthy of the mantle and former Crow Sam Kerridge will be a useful addition. In Patrick Cripps they have a special player, but I hope fans don’t overburden him with expectation. I’m thinking 5 wins and 17th on the ladder for the Blues. 

Matt: I like what SOS has done this off season. He made a bunch of grown man moves that should set up the Blues for the future. The present is another story: The hierarchy at the Blues are all selling that same brand of snake oil about looking to the future and focusing on the sprouts of positivity. The members (myself included) are buying it big time with membership sales going bananas. I wonder what will happen if the Blues lose to Essendon in Round 6. The members will tear the place down (myself included). I’m curious to see where Jack Silvagni’s nickname lands. GOS? GOSSOS? Jackyyyy? 

Andrew: Even though the Pies have missed the finals the last 2 years, you’d think that it was a bit of an anomaly. Top to bottom, they are still a solid side and have true elite talent in Pendlebury and Dane Swan. Offseason pickup, Adam Treloar will have more of an impact than the casual fan will realise, giving the Pies the auxiliary option in the midfield that they have lacked since Dayne Beams left. And no matter what anyone says, finals are always better when Collingwood and their travelling army of degenerates are there. 

Will: With no finals in his three years at the helm, it’s time for Nathan Buckley to deliver. In terms of age profile, Collingwood’s list looks ready to surge up the ladder, but that doesn’t mean it’ll happen. There are no problems in the midfield: It was good before they got Adam Treloar, now it’s excellent. But elsewhere the Pies are vulnerable, or at least unproven. Up forward, Travis Cloke is wayward and Darcy Moore is exciting but raw. Without Ben Reid, their defence looks pedestrian and leaky. All in all, I don’t think the Pies are ready for finals football. 

Matt: I’ll make a big call early – the Bucks won’t stop here. The 'Pies have been building nicely for 2-3 years now. I get a feeling that this year we will start to see the fruits of their labour. Treloar, Aish and Howe are handy pick ups in the off-season. Big things are on the horizon for Travis Cloke this year too. His accuracy will be vastly improved; both in front of goal and with the phone numbers to which he sends his nudes. 

Andrew: The ultimate punishment for the Bombers this year is being forced to field an amateur side in a full season of professional sports. They have enough top-shelf talent (Goddard, Zaharakis and young Daniher) to give it a go most games, but you just can’t see them finishing anywhere outside of the bottom 3 this season. What happens off the field will be the real story for the Bombers this season, Look for appeals for all suspended players and some dumb shit to be said by ex-Bomber-affiliated people. 

Will: Even with a full squad available, Essendon’s list is scrape-into-finals quality at best. Now with 10 of their best players having a gap year, the poor old Dons are going to suck - the question is how bad? With the rejects and has-beens they’ve cobbled together, they might actually have a semi-respectable backline. In the midfield and the forward line, however, things look grim. Not unlike Cool Runnings, this crew of misfits might win a few hearts this year, but they won’t win any medals. Three wins max for the Dons. 

Matt: Poor Woosha’s ice-cold grill must have wavered slightly when that WADA decision was handed down. He’s one dude that keeps a pretty consistent, calm demeanour, but surely he must have thought he was sold a bunch of magic beans when that decision came down. I imagined him to be sitting in his office, listening to the theme song at the time, still expressionless as the words rolled out 'See the Bombers, fly up, up...' You can totally see him being the guy who gets it done regardless of the situation though. 

Fremantle Dockers

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Andrew: Last season’s minor premiers ran into the Hawthorn buzzsaw in the Preliminary Finals last season, but can take solace in the fact that their greatest player (Matthew Pavlich) will return for another season and that they have the reigning best player in the competition in Nat Fyfe. There wasn’t much need to change what worked with the Dockers and as long as their coach is in charge, they should be in contention every year.

Will: Sorry Ross Lyon, I respect you man, and you have come so close, but I think your premiership dream has slipped away.  Don't get me wrong, your Dockers will be top four again this year.  You won’t lose many games at home and I like the addition of Bennel. But with all due respect, your squad is kinda old and with your stodgy ball movement and lack of tall forwards, you won’t kick enough goals to win a flag. “Shut up, we have Fyfe,” I hear you say. OK, I’ll stop. But can you do me a solid and give Hayden Ballantyne a nipple cripple? Thanks. 

Matt: I’m so confused about Freo’s chances this year, and maybe its due to the fact that Ross Lyon seems happy? You kinda think that he is up to something. Harley Bennell is a big-time get and will inject a good amount of x-factor into the team. Pav sticking around for another year will be huge for the fans. If ever a team song was in need of a rework it has to be this one. The "Purple Haze" reference from Game’s "Church for Thugs" would be a lock for that remix.

Andrew: The Cats have had some regression to the mean in recent years, a far cry from their dominance a few years ago. But then, in one of the greatest off-seasons of all time, they took Patrick Dangerfield from Adelaide and Scott Selwood from West Coast in the space of a few weeks. The rest of the league let out a collective sigh and resigned themselves to the reality that trips to Simonds Stadium are just going to be hell all over again. 

Will: After missing the finals last year for the first time in a decade, Geelong could be excused a bit of rebuild time. But an aggressive summer of recruiting has brought hype back to the Cattery and I have to say I am a believer. With Danger, Selwood, Duncan, and Motlop in the engine room, it will be a case of “who you gonna tag?” There are concerns around an ageing defence and a Hawkins-centric forward line. Still, with that midfield and a distinct home ground advantage, I think they’ll be back in the lower rung of the eight. 

Matt: Man, their trade game was really strong. Picking up Danger, Henderson, Zac Smith & Scott Selwood has the Cats back in contention for the flag. The Cats have been legit for so long now that you can never see them falling off. The club continues to be a benchmark for others to follow. It’s saying a lot, that players from all over the land are wanting to move to Geelong. Danger made Moggs Creek sound like it was the Bahamas. 

Andrew: This team will go as far as Gary Ablett Jr will take them. With a good young list and the former Geelong superstar healthy, the Suns could surprise a few people and have a decent run at a final appearance. 

Will: What’s going on up on the Gold Coast? I know the place is tacky, but surely there are enough beach babes around to keep the boys happy. Player exodus and ill discipline point to a worrying cultural problem. Of course, a horrific run with injuries hasn’t helped. But as good as Gary Jnr is, with the likes of Bennel and Dixon moving on, and O’Meara and Prestia still under injury clouds, I just don't think they’ll have enough winners on the park to make the eight. They’ll finish 9th – 12th and the AFL will get increasingly anxious about its second youngest baby. 

Matt: Gary Ablett is fired up and that is what I am most excited about for the Suns. I read an article 2 weeks ago and it was pretty much summarised like this: SHOTS FIRED: Ablett sends warning to Nat Fyfe "You trying to be the king, but the Ace is back." It was a great headline, sucked me into the exaggerated story in a big way, and made me realise just how quickly we forgot about Gary. 

Andrew: The more threatening of the two recent expansion teams, the GWS Giants have done extremely well to build a stable and competitive team since entering the league. Raiding the Victorian teams for their better players (such as current captain Callan Ward and Tom Scully) while making full use of their draft concessions in picking up talent like Jeremy Cameron have set them up as a future power. This season should see some natural progression, but it’ll be at least 2 years before we start seeing GWS as real contenders.

Will: The Giants have come along nicely since their inception and they have more talent than they know what to do with. They lost a gun inside/outside mid in Adam Treloar, but they have an even better one in Dylan Shiel (Chris Judd 2.0) and a swathe of other high draft picks who are ready to shine. I was tempted to put them in my eight but I think they’ll just miss out again. Get the hell out of their way in 2017 though.

Matt: The Giants are finals bound this year. Getting Mummy back is a major key. Stevie J will will surely be good for a few match-winning performances, keeping the crowds and Bruce McAvaney happy in the process. They have talent for days and when they get on a roll, they are as legit as they come. I remember despairing into my $15 mid-strength beer when they towelled up the Blues at Etihad early last year.

Hawthorn Hawks

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Andrew: It’s the damn Hawks. They are the San Antonio Spurs of the AFL. A rock solid organization that does just enough in the regular season, before unleashing the hounds in the finals series. Luke Hodge is the best captain in the game, Sam Mitchell is probably a cyborg that doesn’t know how to stop running and Jarryd Roughhead, well, just put him anywhere on the field and watch him blow things up. Just like the Spurs, nobody really hates the Hawks. We all kind of just accept the fact they most likely will win this season. 

Will: Part of me wouldn't mind seeing Hawthorn make it four in a row, purely from a history-making perspective. That is only a small part of me though, because most of me is well and truly sick of their glory hoggin’. It’ll be interesting to see how they cover for Roughead early in the season. Depth is a great strength of theirs, but Roughie’s flexibility and goal kicking will be hard to replace in total. And seriously, Hodge and Mitchell have to fade at some point, right? Well yes, but unfortunately this is arguably the greatest team ever we’re talking about. All I know is that if they do it again I’ll be avoiding Hawks fans for the rest of my days.​

Matt: ‘Fourthorn’. I’m already sick of hearing that. Roughy being unavailable for the first chunk of the season has the coaching panel in 2 minds: whether they’ll finish 1st or 2nd. Hale & Lake leave, but there is a queue of talented replacements to come in longer than the MCC line on Anzac Day. Hodgey is pretty much the OG of the competition and you have to respect the hustle of Clarko. He’s always on to the next one. There is probably no logical reason to bet against the champs again this year. 

Andrew: Let’s put it out there and make people aware that the future of Melbourne rests with four players, all of the named Jack. Since they are one short of getting a collective nickname of the Jackson 5, let’s just roll with New Jack City. Grimes, Watts, Trengrove and Viney will determine how this club runs this year and in the future, so for the sake of the decade long suffering at Melbourne, lets hope this story has a happy ending. 

Will: Melbourne’s improvement under Paul Roos has been steady and an unbeaten pre-season campaign has raised some suggestion that finals aren’t out of the question for the Dees. “Pre season wins mean squat,” you groan. True, but the Dees have a nice bunch of talent that is starting to ripen. OK, maybe they won’t make finals, but they will beat some good sides and they will finish about 10th, and when Roos goes to hand over the keys to Simon Goodwin at the end of the year he will say; “Sorry Simon, I’m keeping these.”

Matt: Jesse Hogan is worth the price of a ticket alone. He’s got that superstar presence that will bring Dee’s fans swarming through the gates (even throughout the snow season). They struck gold with Angus Brayshaw too. Despite the positive outlook, Dees fans still seem to be waiting for that Anvil to drop on their heads. ‘Yeah it was a good win this week, but wait for us to get towelled up next week’. It’s probably fair enough, given their last 10 years. But this year has to be different for them. To quote Mark Jackson, "sometimes, it's just time to put the kids to bed." 

Will: It’s tricky to get a hold on North. Are they a team on the cusp of greatness after making two preliminary finals in a row, or a team that has overachieved in September after two indifferent home and away seasons? Goldstein is a Rolls Royce ruckman and Shaun Higgins has proven to be ideal polish for a workmanlike midfield. I’m going to err on the side of positivity and put them in my top four, but they need to do something quickly while the old brigade still have their teeth. It’s now or never for the Roos. 

Matt: It was ‘Daaamn Daniel Wells’ after that first NAB Cup game. Could he be the final piece to the Kangas' puzzle? They have pushed all their chips in with their recent recruiting, so they will be throwing the kitchen sink at it this year. Their midfield has pace, polish and grunt. If they can put it all together, they will no doubt be top four material this year. Surely a focus for 2016 will be overcoming their sluggish starts to the year. I’m sure we could all do without another Round 1 press conference that involved Brad Scott chewing on an oversized wasp. 

Will: If you haven’t been to a Port Adelaide game before, you should. The only thing more impressive than the noise is the superb array of mullets. Many pundits have predicted a top four finish for Port this year. I’m not so sure. Firstly, the loss of Ryder and Monfries will hurt. Secondly, like Richmond, the gap between their top and bottom six is vast. And thirdly, opposition coaches have learnt to combat the sling shot game plan that propelled them deep into 2014. Having said that, they’ve got a generous draw so I think they’ll just make the eight. 

Matt: I’m banking on a power outage this year. (smh). 

They almost took the ultimate prize a couple of seasons ago, basically greyhounding their way to the top and playing some of the most ‘watchable footy’ we’ve seen. But last year, opposition teams seemed to be on to them. They may have to flip the script a bit this year to stay competitive. Charlie Dixon is a great pick up and Jimmy Toumpas is a no. 4 pick that fans can get excited about. 

Richmond Tigers

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Andrew: No matter how much the Tigers want to rehabilitate their image into an inclusive family-friendly club (which led to all-around good guys Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio being the public face of the club), the real stars are the rough and ready Dustin Martin and Jack Riewoldt. They should just embrace it. Be the team we all know you want to be – Just Win Baby. The Tigers will be a tough out for any team this year.

Will: In July last year, Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton trained at Punt Road as part of a Gatorade commercial. The Tigers went on to choke in their third straight elimination final and the Panthers choked in the Super Bowl. Coincidence? Probably. But it’s hard to say what Richmond will dish up this year. Their top end talent is formidable, but they don't always get the support they need. I’m tentatively putting them in my top four, but I think that’s partly because I want their large and ultra-thirsty fan base taste some success. It wouldn't surprise me if they missed the eight all together. 

Matt: 9th. *drops mic*

Will: The bad news for Saints fans is that they’re in for another year without finals. The good news is that some of the building blocks of finals a side are there, they just need to find a few more. I’m excited to see what former number one pick Paddy McCartin can deliver in his second season and Jack Billings has class for days. Also, Nick Riewoldt, I love you. 10-15th for the Sainters.

Matt: The Saints are the blueprint for what a young, exciting up and coming team should be. Their long-term play may not be as long as what everyone first thought either. They took down some big names last year and were generally a lot more competitive than most experts predicted. ICON ALERT: Nick Riewoldt plays his 300th game in Round 2. Every Saints supporter known to man will turn up to pay their respects to the skipper. 

Andrew: The Swans are boring. 

Will: COLA aside, you’ve got to give the Bloods their props. They have missed finals just once since 2003, picking up a couple of flags and repeatedly re-inventing themselves with remarkable efficiency. Their current midfield is stacked with the kind of hard-nosed talent that wins finals and any forward line with Buddy is capable of kicking big scores. But for the first time in a while, on paper at least, the Swans look vulnerable in defence.  They’ll be in the eight again but I wouldn't say they’re a lock for top four. 

Matt: MAJOR QUAY ALERT: The Harbour City gets back Buddy! If he is fit, the Swans are a 5 goal better team. I actually feel like everyone is suddenly sleeping on the Swans a bit. They were disappointing last year, but on paper, they have arguably the most talented list in the comp. They remind me a little of the Heat when they first got LeBron. Admittedly, it's taking the Swans longer than Miami to figure it out, but there could be a Game 6 TD Garden moment for the Swans this year. Win, lose or draw, you can bank on the big Horse Longmire having a strut befitting of his nickname. 

Andrew: If anyone claimed they saw West Coast reaching the finals last year before the start of the season, they were a liar. Most would’ve though they were a good season or two away from really ascending into the elite status that they now occupy, years ahead of schedule. While the team has no transcendent stars like their rivals in the top-tier, their collective effort and youth should carry them into another deep finals run. Having one of the best ruckmen and forwards in the entire league should help too.

Will: They were schooled hard by the Hawks in the Grand Final, but 2015 was still a year of massive and widely unexpected gains for the Eagles. Previously unheard of guys like Andrew Gaff, Elliot Yeo and the only Eagle without a sexy Perth tan, Jeremy McGovern, emerged as guns. And the human highlight reel, Nic Natanui, started to fulfill his potential in the ruck, where his obscene agility put fear in the heart of lumbering ruckmen (Nic Nat can ball too). The talent runs deep at West Coast. I think they’ll win the flag this year. 

Matt: Memo to Opposition teams: Bow down, when you westward bound. I can’t see anyone beating the Eagles at home this year. They had injuries out the arse last year but still made the Grand Final. Add in Lewis Jetta to an already deep line up and you’re looking at a legitimate contender to the Hawks. 

Andrew: One of the best stories of last year, the Doggies are primed to give the finals another go with their rapidly developing squad. While the old veterans are still kicking about, everybody’s favourite “second team” will be a serious threat with their young core of rising stars. Jake Stringer put together a season that has him on pace to overtake Port’s Ollie Wines as the best pick of the 2012 National Draft.

Will: Doggies fans will be pumped to have 2014 club champion Tom Liberatore back this year. He will slot into an emerging midfield that boasts Jackson Macrae, Mitch Wallis and the Mediterranean God sent to earth for our viewing pleasure, Marcus Bontempelli. But when I sat down to do my ladder prediction – a nigh on impossible task this year – I just couldn’t fit the Dogs in my eight. It’s hard to explain why. Structurally, the loss of Stewart Crameri will be significant, but for some reason I just think this young side will have a down year and then come back with a vengeance in 2017. 

Matt: The real deal or studio gangstas? I think the real deal. Brendan McCartney was reportedly harder than a coffin nail during his time, but that has instilled a mongrel instinct into the Dogs. When you take that mongrel instinct and combine it with Luke Beveridge’s polish and ability to galvanise a team, you have a winning combination not seen since the addition of Russell Coight to Hotline Bling. Tom Boyd will go HAM this year. That factor alone will take the Dogs into the Top 4. 

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