Emmys 2019: Who Should Win and Who Will Win

Image via Getty/VALERIE MACON/AFP

Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul ("Winner")

Like most Hollywood award shows the Emmys has the tendency to play out more like a line at your local deli rather than an actual night of recognizing the best and brightest. This first come first serve fuckshit is exactly what’s spelled Bob Odenkirk’s doom at the hands of those less deserving since Better Call Saul first premiered back in 2015. Now I know what you’re thinking – “Don’t multiple nominations put him towards the front of said line?” Absolutely, but that’s not why 2019 should be his year. The character of Jimmy McGill has continued to evolve at the hands of one of the greatest writers in the game, Vince Gilligan, and Odenkirk’s performances have always kept pace. This past season, Odenkirk brought something extra though. With the full transformation of McGill into the long-awaited Saul Goodman, every episode was blessed and made better by him raising the bar on a character we already knew and loved. I mean, that breakdown in the parking lot of HHM should be enough to cinch a gold angel… But if it’s not, tally up the fuckshit and give the man his damn W already.

Who Will Win: Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us ("R & B")

The one thing more powerful than the people who vote for the Emmys is the people who watch them, Aka the fans of the shows and performers up for a statue. Few shows have a bigger fanbase than This is Us, and season three irrefutably belonged to Sterling K. Brown and his ever-evolving performance of Randall Pearson. Plagued by mental health issues, work drama, and a new splash of trouble in his once impossibly perfect marriage, Brown runs the gamut of emotions week to week without missing a step. Even when the material dangles on the edge of cheesy, as all family-sitcoms have the tendency to do, Brown’s ability to find the genuine counterbalance is often enough to bring anyone watching to tears. That’s called empathy. That’s called connection. That’s called viewership. And as award shows continue to struggle to find an audience in the coming years of cut cable cords, you can expect popularity’s vote to carry more weight. Just be thankful this year the popular vote happens to be for someone deserving.

Dark Horse: Jason Bateman, Ozark

In the age of YouTube, people like something they can pinpoint then cut into a clip no longer than 90-seconds. Jason Bateman doesn’t have that with his performance of Marty Byrde in the Netflix crime drama Ozark. What he does have is a slow-roll tour-de-force unfolding over ten episodes. In years past I would have counted this as a hindrance to his chances of nabbing a statue, but as more people switch to streaming services, the way they watch is also changing. Subtle brilliance, like what Bateman offers in season 2 of Ozark, can now be consumed in one day of binging as opposed to a week to week run, making the need for the exclamation-mark-scene less than what it once was. Who knows, maybe Bateman will be the one to prove it’s no longer needed at all.—Nate

Who Should Win: Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones ("The Last of the Starks")

Was Thrones’ final run largely disappointing objectively, and largely trash arguably? Was Emilia’s character, more specifically her character assassination, the centerpiece of said discontent? Yes, yes and yes. And yet! What we will not do is fault Emilia for that. On the contrary, she did her damned best to sell every whiplash inducing plot and character turn those last three episodes threw at her, and she made it resonate more deeply than the writing deserved. Her hardest work of the series, to be honest.

Who Will Win: Emilia Clarke

This is Thrones year, baby. It’s going to clean up where it deserves to, and where it doesn’t. The sooner we accept that, the better.

Dark Horse: Robin Wright, House of Cards ("Chapter 70")

Sometimes the larger public narrative influences a vote, and I can totally see Robin Wright being rewarded for House of Cards’ decision to get Kevin Spacey’s problematic ass the hell off of set and bump her up to bring the series home all on her own.—Frazier

Who Should Win: Bill Hader, Barry ("The Truth Has a Ring to It")

Can Hader’s work as the perennially tortured hitman with the wannabe heart of gold even considered comedy? Bill’s a funny guy, but as Barry Berkman, he’s often more tortured than a laugh riot. This is where the Emmys placed him though, in these days of Peak TV genre fluidity, so this is where we’ll ride for him. Hader’s giving one of the best performances on TV bar none. 

Who Will Win: Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method ("Chapter One: An Actor Avoids")

The voting body loves an old veteran almost as much as they love an A-list movie star whose taken his talents to the tube. I don’t know anyone who actually watches this show, but given that its Douglas in a Chuck Lorre show I fully expect it to clean up the way it did at the Globes.

Dark Horse: Ted Danson, The Good Place ("The Worst Possible Use of Free Will")

The voting body loves an old veteran and they always seem motivated to give an OG his flowers if it looks like the window of opportunity is closing. With Good Place on its last season, who knows when the next time a true-blue legend like Ted Danson will be front and center is? And it’s not like he isn’t doing awards worthy-work, reminding us all why he’s been holding it down for multiple decades.—Frazier

Who Should Win: Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll ("Nothing in this World Is Easy") / Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep ("Veep")

This one is a toss up. Veep has consistently been a go-to for HBO’s comedy slate for years, and Julia’s shown to always be on her game in the series. That said, critically, Netflix’s Russian Doll had a huge moment when the series premiered. Natasha Lyonne, who’s been around for a while, truly came into her own with the series, which she created, starred in, and even directed on. It’d make the most sense to give Lyonne her flowers for a dynamic debut season now.

Who Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Julia’s won six consecutive Primetime Emmys for Veep in this category already and has spent the '90s and '00s being nominated (and sometimes winning) this Emmy as well. She’s beloved, and it’s not like these wins aren’t deserved.

Dark Horse: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel ("Midnight at the Concord")

The Emmys love The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and Brosnahan has won this Emmy in the past (as well as two consecutive Golden Globes) for her role in the series. It’s actually kind of interesting to see these two battle it out this year. If anyone could take this award out of Julia’s hands, it might be Rachel.—khal

Who Should Win: Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones ("The Iron Throne")

Does season 8 of Game of Thrones deserve all the nominations it got? In short, hell no! One nom that is deserving though is Peter Dinklage’s. We already know he can act, with seven nominations and three wins prior for the very same role of Tyrion Lannister. The difference this year is that he was forced to work on a show that was far from the best on TV. Give a man grapes and you can watch him make wine, but give him garbage and still see him turn out a Chianti – he’s special. The fact Dinklage was able to keep his scenes as captivating as ever while spurting words that David Benioff and D.B. Weiss probably came up with on their ride to the shoot should earn him the GoT MVP alongside an Emmy.

Who Will Win: Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones ("The Iron Throne")

The truth of the matter is Game of Thrones is going to clean up at the show this year. Not because it deserves it, but because it’s the last chance for the industry to pat a once-great show on the back and say thanks for a near-decade of entertainment. One of GoT’s most visible faces has always been Peter Dinklage, and the fact that he actually deserves an award just makes tallying up the score for an appropriate sendoff even easier.

Dark Horse: Michael Kelly, House of Cards ("Chapter 73")

Michael Kelly would have once been a shoo-in for his all too enjoyably disturbing portrayal of Doug Stamper on House of Cards. Time and time again he’s proved that he can hang with the top talent he shares the small screen with. Season 6 saw him do more than keep up though, it saw him compete for the first time ever. As the extent of Doug’s conniving depravity unfolds, Kelly kicks it up a notch to meet the occasion, only stopping when he meets his thrilling, and bloody end. The fact that this was the show’s final season only helps his chances since the folks that vote have the tendency to handout awards like goody bags. Given the current climate, and stain the show has on it from its former leading man, sadly, it might prove to risky to give Kelly anything more than the subtle nod of a nomination.—Nate

Who Should Win: Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones ("The Long Night")

Supporting is where Thrones is going to eat the most, arguably. It’s almost all Thrones actors to begin with, that damn large ensemble. Maisie took center stage narratively this season in an unexpected way and much like Emilia, bodied what was thrown at her and sold some of the more difficult plot turns as well. Would “The Bells” even have been watchable without Arya on the ground? She submitted "The Long Night," though, which she made watchable (literally, our eyes still hurt), and dominated, an Arya showcase through and through.

Who Will Win: Maisie Williams

Maisie? Honestly I don’t know. Sophie Turner did great work as well (she's nominated for "Winterfell," the season 8 premiere), but by nature of the story and where her character fits, she did sit some of the showier moments out. This one’s kind of a toss-up between the Stark sisters, but I’m hedging with Arya.

Dark Horse: Gwendoline Christie, Game of Thrones ("A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms")

Season 8 doesn’t really do right by Brienne, especially after The Long Night popped off, but you also have to remember that actors submit, and technically contend, off the strength of sole episodes. With that in mind, Gwendoline could absolutely take it for the beautiful knighting scene between Jaime and Brienne in “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms.”—Frazier

Who Should Win: Anthony Carrigan, Barry ("Past = Present x Future Over Yesterday")

NoHo Hank is one of the best new TV characters in recent memory and Anthony Carrigan’s performance is about as unique and singular as it gets. Award this man!

Who Will Win: Tony Hale, Veep ("Veep")

Veep is coming off a great final season, after Julia Louis-Dreyfus, one of the most awarded and beloved actors in Emmy history, overcame a cancer scare to deliver it. Hale has been a voter favorite for years across both of his seminal series, and considering Gary’s powerful, understated shift from bumbling clown to tragic pawn, it’s easy to see him getting the gold for his singular and collective efforts.

Dark Horse: Henry Winkler, Barry ("What?!")

Henry already won for this last year, this year will be the litmus test to determine whether it was a one-time thing or if he’ll be a serious contender in this category for as long as Bill Hader keeps making Barry. He doesn’t need it, but he is bodying everything Hader throws at him nonetheless, providing comic relief and quiet tragedy at the same time.—Frazier

Who Should Win: Sarah Goldberg, Barry ("The Audition")

“ronny/lily” deservedly gets the praise as Barry season 2’s crown jewel but two episodes after has what is arguably the season’s best scene and that is of course Sarah Goldberg running the gamut of narcissism and sympathy without breaking a sweat in a monologue that keeps the camera trained on just her and nothing else. She commands the screen, commands the season so forcefully it’s only technical to call her supporting really, and a win here would be a nice consolation for canceling Hindsight, the VH1 scripted series she co-starred in before this that was clearly too beautiful for this cruel world.

Who Will Win: Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live ("Host: Liev Schreiber")

She’s always nominated and the Emmys love to jerk SNL off. A nice trophy as a reward for staying, perhaps?

Dark Horse: Olivia Colman, Fleabag ("Episode 4")

Olivia’s got heat right now: Globes wins, a star turn in The Favourite, and succeeding Claire Foy on The Crown. I don’t see Fleabag’s critical praise translating into a lot of awards on Sunday but maybe Colman will be the exception?—Frazier

Who Should Win: Jharrel Jerome

Every facet and department of When They See Us is heart-wrenching to great cinematic effect, but the ensemble piece goes solo for its last installment and leaves a lot on Jharrel’s plate—which he absolutely knocks out of the park. If you held the tears back during the first three hours there’s no way you can make it out of JJ’s showcase with a dry eye.

Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell

You know what showbiz voting boards love almost as much as they love veteran A-list movie stars? Veteran A-list movie stars playing beloved Hollywood figures in productions about showbiz. I don’t know if Sam should beat Jharrel Jerome but for what it’s worth, he does indeed do great work as Bob Fosse and Fosse/Verdon is absolutely worth your time. I just hope it doesn’t win a bunch of awards that generate schadenfreude and ill will towards what was genuinely a dope series.

Dark Horse: Jared Harris

Critics loved Chernobyl. The streets loved Chernobyl. Even if you don’t know Jared Harris by name (which you would if you watched Mad Men, so by admission of not watching Mad Men you are a Philistine in my eyes), you know his face—he’s been a reliable character actor playing guys to root for and heavies for decades now. I could see him shimmying through a split vote to come up on the W.—Frazier

Who Should Win: Asante Blackk, When They See Us

Blackk’s portrayal of Kevin Richardson in When They See Us was one of the more heartbreaking in the series. Being that he looked the youngest of the five kids playing the Central Park Five, it was horrible to see him having to go through the system, especially when you realize how much was going on that he had no idea about. You felt for him, and he delivered.

Who Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Chernobyl

Stellan’s portrayal of Boris Shcherbina, who oversaw the crisis management behind the Chernobyl disaster and later turned into a whistleblower, could be one of the categories that critic favorite Chernobyl steals for the night.

Dark Horse: Ben Whishaw, ​​​​​​​A Very English Scandal

Whishaw’s performance as Norman Scott in BBC One’s A Very English Scandal has already netted him a Globe and a Critic’s Choice Award, so don’t be surprised if he also snags this Emmy. It’s that simple sometimes.—khal

Who Should Win: Niecey Nash (When They See Us) /Michelle Williams (FosseVerdon)

Niecey Nash is known for playing loud, gregarious characters with aplomb but her gearshift into dramatic, quiet devastation was a powerful companion to Jharrel’s work in When They See Us. On the other hand, Michelle Williams is an absolute powerhouse as Gwen Verdon, with the kind of lived-in, palpable performance that just screams nomination as soon as you see it. Actors in this category don't submit a singular episode, but those of us who watched knew it was a wrap as soon as Michelle sang the titular song in F/V's "Where Am I Going?" installment. Either/or would be acceptable here.

Who Will Win: Michelle Williams

Love Niecey, but again: Voters love a veteran star, especially one playing an older veteran star.

Dark Horse: Patricia Arquette, (Escape to Dannemora)

I don’t know anyone who actually watched Dannemora, but it has serious movie star power behind it with Dano, Del Toro and Ben Stiller in the director’s chair. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if Patricia Arquette came through with the upset while everyone was focused on a When They See Us vs Fosse/Verdon showdown.—Frazier

Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette, The Act

Not sure if everyone watched Hulu’s The Act, but if you did, you know Arquette brought it playing Dee Dee Blanchard, the woman who put her daughter through hell and ended up losing her life. It was an insane transformation, and her layered performance brought new eyes to Gypsy Rose’s plight. It’s also one of the Hulu series that deserves more eyes and praise.

Who Will Win: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects

Patricia Clarkson’s Adora Crellin is the main villain for the majority of Sharp Objects. She could cut you down with a glance or talk you in circles, bending your will to hers. Then, of course, she made sure that anyone in her clutches stayed there. Outside of trying to figure out who the real killer is, one of the best parts of watching Sharp Objects was getting to the root of Adora’s evil, and Patricia Clarkson deserves all of the credit for her performance.

Dark Horse: Emily Watson, Chernobyl

Again, Chernobyl is pegged to be a silent killer this Emmys SZN, and Watson’s Ulana Khomyuk portrayal could pull the rug from everyone else in the category.—khal

Who Should Win: When They See Us

Ava DuVernay’s When They See Us is brilliant; it reframed the narrative on a story that many weren’t aware of, at a time when we needed it. From the wonderful casting choices to the heartbreaking terror these five individuals lived through to the redemption story coming out of it, Netflix really has a winner here, and they should be recognized.

Who Will Win: Fosse/Verdon / Chernobyl

That said, FX’s Fosse/Verdon and HBO’s Chernobyl also did their thing, highlighting stories that were known to some but exposing them for the many, to the delight of critics. Chernobyl’s being pegged to clean up, so it’d make sense if they snatched this award as well.

Dark Horse: Escape at Dannemora

One of the shining lights from Showtime, the slower-paced Escape at Dannemora has commanding performances and a recent real-world plot that could sneak in and surprise many in a category full of real-life tales hitting the small screen.—khal

Who Should Win: Russian Doll / Barry

Two of the biggest series? It just makes sense, and it’s dope that both of these are driven by one person’s vision. Bill Hader found a way to turn what would’ve been a perfect single-season show into a deeper look at Barry’s plight, where he’s trying to escape his violent past that continues to catch up with him. On the other, Natasha Lyonne took the Groundhog’s Day trope and turned it on its ear, giving viewers a puzzling tale wrapped up in a loveletter to NYC. Any way these series can split the award?

Who Will Win: Veep

Again, this is Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ world and the rest of us are just living in it.

Dark Horse: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Honestly, forget everything I said. If this show is in the running, it’s more than likely going to snatch the award.

Who Should Win: Succession

Succession has leveled up so thoroughly in the short gap between Seasons 1 and 2 that its debut season feels quaint by comparison. But even if every episode wasn’t an A+ like its sophomore run, Succession’s debut was the surprise hit of the summer and by episode 6 it’s cooking with premium gas. A season featuring the dialog “I swallowed my own load” deserves an Emmy for best drama, I said it! (And let the is it comedy or drama discussion die here, it’s a very funny drama! Debate your Uber driver.)

Who Will Win: Game of Thrones

I’m very sorry to be the one to tell you this, but the lesser (weakest) HBO show of the year is going to win this. It sucked. We know it. D&D know it. If you believe the subtext of certain interviews, the actors know it. It’s going to win. I’m sorry in advance.

Dark Horse: Ozark

I don’t know what people see in this Pedialyte Breaking Bad but it’s got momentum and Emmy faves in Jason Bateman and Laura Linney. I couldn’t even make it through season 2 nor tell you what transpired in the 20 or so episodes of this series that I have seen with a gun to my head. It has a 30% chance of beating Thrones.—Frazier