10 Reasons Chicago's Murder Rate May Rise in 2013

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Just last week, the Chicago Public School system released a list of 129 schools that face closure, most of them on Chicago's South, West, and Southwest sides. Though the final decision won't be reached until the end of March, the district claims it will have to close an undetermined number of schools with declining enrollment to combat a forecasted deficit of $1 billion, a move which could potentially affect over 43,000 students.

According to a recently published Chicago Tribune article, faculty members from the schools facing closure claim that they are under-enrolled due to the rapidly expanding number of charter schools that have drawn students away, or even "taken" them, as Owens Elementary counselor Tonya Saunders-Wolfee claims. Some also make the argument that closing schools could put students in danger.

Last month, a group of parents and school activists advised the district not to close any high schools because it would force students to cross gang territory to get to their new schools. Karen Lewis, the President of the Chicago Teachers Union, agrees. Speaking with Reuters, Lewis said the closure of high schools "highly correlates to drop out rates and spikes of violence."

If the high schools facing closure do indeed shut their doors, not only will students have to travel through war zones just to get to school, but some students may also withdraw entirely, considering the well-documented relationship between involvement in gangs and increased dropout rates. Older teens in particular will be in danger, as they are more susceptible to gang involvement, meaning the potential closures could prove to be a devastating one-two punch.

If Chicago decides to go ahead with its proposal to close these schools, there's no telling how many young people the decision might affect, and what the ramifications of the final decision will be. It's a frightening uncertainty.

Concentrated urban poverty is defined as 40 percent of an area's population living below the federal poverty line. Factors for this clustering of poverty can include segregation, discrimination, deindustrialization, and the departure of wealthy whites and middle class blacks from urban areas. Chicago Reader makes an accurate and devastating point, saying urban poverty is "inextricably linked to being black."

Last summer, Chicago Reader reporter Steve Bogira examined data that the Chicago Department of Public Health published and broke down the rates of homicide for Chicago's five poorest and five least-poor neighborhoods between 2004 and 2008. For every murder in the better neighborhoods, there were 13 in those areas riddled with poverty. Bogira also notes that in 2010, Arthur J. Lurigio, a professor of criminal justice and psychology at Loyola University, asserted that 52 percent of Chicago's murders happened in only six of its 25 police districts. In each of these areas, economic deficiency, gang violence and poverty passed down from generation to generation were reoccurring issues.

The only feasible way to solve this problem is to clean up these neighborhoods, and to eliminate poverty in those geographical pockets, a fear much easier said than done. Segregation in Chicago began over a century ago, and has contributed to what the city has become: a metropolis with the highest murder rate in the country.

The process begins with city officials, chiefly the mayor, and as Bogira points out, much like the mayor's of the past, Mayor Rahm Emanuel has been hesitant to confront the matter. That is, until now. Chicago's murder rate has now garnered too much national attention for the issue to once again be swept under the rug. Chicago needs more than empty words—it needs decisive action.

Even if you aren't familiar with Chicago, if you've ever watched Good Times or Steve James' Hoop Dreams, you know about the Cabrini-Green projects. Beginning in 1995, the city began demolishing the Chicago Housing Authority's most well-known project building. In March 2011, the final high-rise was destroyed, bringing an end to one of the city's most recognizable and problematic projects.

Construction on Cabrini-Green began in 1942 and took twenty years to complete. Though it started as part of the "urban renewal" trend, it was soon plagued by gang activity. Several high-profile crimes thrust Cabrini-Green into the spotlight during the 1990s, including the murder of Dantrell Davis, a 7-year-old girl who was the victim of a stray bullet in 1992, and the murder of 9-year-old Shatonya Edwards, or "Girl X," in 1997, who was left for dead after being raped, choked, and having insecticide sprayed down her throat. Soon after, a plan to redevelop the area was announced, and demolition began almost immediately.

With the decision to destroy these public housing structures, city officials hoped they would prevent some of Chicago's crime by eliminating the place that many criminals called home. They were wrong. They forced people out of their homes, and only succeeded in moving the crime to other neighborhoods. As the sprawl continues, gang activity will continue, and Chicago's murder rate may never see a decline.

While it wouldn't be accurate to say the Chicago Police Department isn't doing its job, it is valid to point out that they could be more active in finding new ways to address crime in the city. Yes, they're under great pressure, but when Chicago Police Superintendent Gary McCarthy said the city's murder rate "isn't that bad," he showed a lack of sensitivity, and an inability to address the growing issue. In an interview with the Chicago Sun-Times last month, McCarthy attempted to deflect blame by focusing on the good things the CPD has done to combat the murder rate, pointing out that currently, shootings have decreased as compared to the same time last year.

Last summer, when the murder rate drew significant media coverage, McCarthy explained to the Union League Club that the attention was fueled by "perception." According to McCarthy, the media's focus on Chicago's violence has made it appear worse than it really is. It wasn't the answer that the families of Chicago's hundreds of victims were looking for. Rather than trying to impress its citizens with glib speeches, the Chicago Police Department should focus on offering solid solutions to the issues the city is facing.

As with any other city, a lack of employment opportunities can lead to citizens taking to illegal activities for income. That's not to say Chicago's citizens don't want to earn money honestly, it only suggests that they don't have many options to do so. When segregation, poverty, and crime are allowed to fester, and citizens have the sense those wounds will never be tended to, it often pushes them to violent extremes. This phenomena is exactly what Jay-Z's talking about at the beginning of "Can I Live?" when he says people "hustle out of a sense of hopelessness."

Just last fall, Mayor Rahm Emanuel criticized labor unions for not hiring blacks in the city. During an appearance on WVON-AM, he spoke on how blacks are underrepresented in construction work, taking aim at labor unions for hiring more whites and Hispanics than blacks.

Desperation is capable of driving people straight into the belly of the beast, and Chicago's citizens are likely convinced the city is unconcerned with their issues, making it easier to rationalize crime as a solution.

Despite Chicago's restrictive gun laws, the presence of illegal guns on the streets still proves to be a pressing issue. Gun shops have been outlawed, there are no civilian gun ranges, and both assault rifles and high-capacity magazines have been banned. Still, some 50,000 guns were recovered in Chicago between 2001 and 2012, and most of Chicago's murder victims have fallen to gun violence.

According to the New York Times, the Chicago Police Department traced the origins of these recovered guns and discovered that more than half of them came from outside of the city. Of those 50,000 guns, over 15,000 came from Cook County and other bordering towns where gun stores are still permitted. Another 4,000 came from outside of the city altogether, as they were traced back to Mississippi, particularly the more rural parts. When families who left Mississippi migrated north in in the 1940s and 1970s, Chicago was one of the places where they often landed. In fact, University of Washington history professor James N. Gregory asserts that in 1970, there were more people from Mississippi living in Illinois than any other Southern state. The Times also suggests that a number of the guns purchased in Mississippi might have been done through family connections.

These connections may contribute to the difficulty local law enforcement faces when trying to trace the origins of the firearms. If guns continue to funnel into the city in spite of its gun laws, murder rates will likely continue to rise.

Crime rates tend to rise as the weather warms due to an increase in public activity during the summer, thus making the chance of interactions, particularly hostile interactions, more likely. When school is out during the summer months, many children are left unsupervised and in need of recreational activities. Sadly, those activities often involve crime.

The heatwaves of Chicago summers often lead to an upswing in crime, specifically violent crime. Last spring, Chicago Magazine published a subset of data that showed violent crimes increased when the temperature did. During July of 2012, when the temperature reached a sweltering 100 degrees, sixteen people were shot in a 24 hour period. One of them was a 10-year-old girl trying to seek refuge from the heat near an open fire hydrant.

Though there's a clear connection between Chicago's crime rates and warm weather, the rates remain high throughout the year. Tracy Siska of the Chicago Justice Project points out that the media may have exaggerated the correlation between the crime rate and temperature. Still, the implicit danger of leaving children unattended is undeniable.

At-risk teens had even fewer options last summer due to cuts in programs created to help troubled children, which proved to be a recipe for disaster. For example, one mentoring program that had 2,200 students lost 64 percent of its funding during the previous school year because of lost federal stimulus money. Idle hands are the devil's tool, and when teens are left to their own designs in America's murder capital, the stakes are even higher.

Chicago's uneven distribution of wealth is a motivating factor for violence. Statistics from the 2009 American Community Survey show that the average white person in Chicago earns $63,625 annually. According to the same study, blacks in Chicago made an average of $28,725, which equates to 45 cents on the dollar compared to the average white person's salary. To say that this leaves blacks at a disadvantage would be a gross understatement.

Think Progress published a study conducted by the Harvard University School of Public Health that showed a connection to homicide rates and income inequality in each state and the District of Columbia. In every instance where income equality was higher, so was the murder rate. The study highlighted that "74 percent of the variance in murder rates and half of the aggravated assaults" could be explained by income inequality. Furthermore, A World Bank study also asserted that this truth is widespread— uneven distribution of wealth and resources were linked to higher homicide rater across the globe.

Income inequality has been on the rise in the U.S. since 1979, and as long as the gap between the rich and the poor remains, the homicide rate in Chicago will likely continue to climb.

A significant portion of Chicago's violence, particularly its murder rate, is tied to gang activity. This is not new information: Chicago has been overwrought with gang-related violence for years. One could even make a strong argument that the modern gang originated in the city. From the Latin Kings and the Gangster Disciples, to the Black King Cobras and the various Vice Lords factions, gang culture has always been a way of life in Chicago. One of the city's most infamous gangsters, Larry Hoover, was an early Gangster Disciples leader, and was infamous long before becoming the inspiration for Rick Ross's plodding 2010 anthem "B.M.F." Gangs have terrorized the city's streets for over 50 years, and show no signs of slowing down.

There were 43 murders in Chicago in January 2013, the most in the year's opening month since 2002. The impact of each life lost has been felt on a national scale because the subject is rightfully under the nation's microscope, but none has hit harder than the murder of Hadiya Pendleton. The 15-year-old honor student from King College Prep was gunned down just blocks from her school on January 29 as she was trying to escape the rain after being dismissed from final exams. A man hopped a fence and opened fire on the group of teens, killing Pendleton, and wounding another teen as the crowd scattered. Pendleton, a member of her school's marching band, had just performed at President Obama's second inauguration a week prior to her murder. Two reputed members of the Gangster Disciples, Michael Ward and Kenneth Williams, have been charged for her murder. 

There's a reason that Chicago has been dubbed "Chiraq." There's a war going on outside no one is safe from, and on all sides, gangs are battling for turf, drugs, and money. Warring gangs have no qualms shooting out their issues in broad daylight, and that lack of concern for the well-being of the general public is a major contributor to the city's rising murder rate. This idea is confirmed by statistics: Chicago's greatest death toll is not among gang members, but among the many innocent bystanders whose lives are routinely taken.

The chief reason Chicago's murder rate will likely climb in 2013 is owed to the great number of gunmen that escape charges. In 2012, 94 percent of gunmen went uncharged. The figure wasn't much better in 2011, as nearly 92 percent of all gunmen managed to avoid being charged. Credit DNAinfo Chicago's Mark Konkol for uncovering this fact: After combing through data from the Chicago Police Department, DNAinfo determined that of the 1,893 "non-lethal" shootings in the city last year, the shooter was charged in just 111 cases.

These staggering numbers don't suggest that the police aren't doing their job. In fact, in many cases, police know who the shooter is, but are unable to successfully file charges due to insufficient evidence. The reason it's so difficult to charge shooters is because witnesses fear being identified as a "snitch." It's unfortunate to think that so many shootings go unsolved because witnesses fail to speak to the police, but it's a logical fact. Providing information to the police could very well lead to gang backlash that could result in more violence against witnesses and their families.

It's this circular chain of violence and fear of more violence that impedes meaningful resolutions.