Welcome to the August edition of Bout to Blow. As you know, we've become pretty agile at predicting hits. Occasionally, we've whiffed. Other times, we've called it before most of your favorite publications. But the point isn't just to get it "right"—anyone can look at stats and see what's going to pop.
This column has two goals:
1. To use the many tools available to us today to get some idea of what songs were really bubbling with "the people"—in other words, to insert some science into the process.
2. To contextualize that information, because raw numbers in a vacuum would have you thinking an anonymous rapper dropped onto a stellar track was hip-hop's next big rap star when he was more like an empty vehicle for a dope beat, hook, and some tattoos. Shots?
The post is obviously intended to be somewhat predictive. There's also an element, though, that is cheerleading. Many of these songs might be flourishing in certain markets, but could use wider exposure. They're tracks where the metrics suggest some forward momentum, even if the clubs and radio play don't reflect that.
Last month, we called the rise of Bobby Shmurda, although the label is definitely putting its money behind "Hot N****"—which, fair enough, it's the more forceful song. We guessed right about Childish Gambino's "3005," which is continuing to climb the Hot 100. Lupe's "Next To It" is being added to radio, and Rae Srummurd has one of the biggest songs of the summer, thanks to a Nicki remix. It remains to be seen what happens with Bandit Gang Marco, and if that song will have further legs.
What's in store for August? Check out this edition of Bout to Blow: 10 Dope Songs You Should Be Hearing Everywhere Soon.
Written by David Drake (@somanyshrimp)
Elle Varner f/ A$AP Ferg “Don't Wanna Dance”
A$AP Ferg seems to show up on a record of basically any artist that'll have him in 2014—recent collaborators include Freddie Gibbs, Haim, and Mali Music. His latest BFF is talented soul belter Elle Varner, whose retro-friendly beats (in this case, she's sampling Jimmy Castor's “I Just Wanna Stop,” which you probably know best for its role in Kanye West's “We Don't Care”) and earnest, extroverted style feel perhaps a bit out of step in these spacey and demur Tinashe-friendly times.
But as it was with her debut Perfectly Imperfect, not being in touch with the zeitgeist makes Elle's music feel even more refreshingly bold. Give or take a Jazmine Sullivan, few singers deliver with such clear, unambiguous enthusiasm. Ferg drops a wry verse from the perspective of a partner who wishes they'd stayed in and watched Martin, although it feels like he ghostwrote it for a different rapper. This record just dropped and is getting a big push to radio, and whatever its Cool rating, it's a great song. It's difficult to imagine it won't do some chart damage.
B.o.B. f/ Ty Dolla $ign “Drunk AF”
Kiesza “Hideaway”
RJ “Ride Wit Me”
Rich Gang f/ Young Thug and Rich Homie Quan “Lifestyle”
Last month, Complex indicated that “Lifestyle” was starting to show some radio traction, but in a show of support over T.I.'s mediocre Iggy Azalea collab, we threw our Young Thug chips behind Tip's “About the Money” instead. Of course, “No Mediocre” blew up, leaving “About the Money” in the dust. Thankfully, the Quan and Thug collab “Lifestyle” is blowing up in its place—and it's en route to becoming even bigger. (If you're in Atlanta, it's probably already huge.)
After kicking off with a few choice piano licks, like a Cash Money Billy Joel record, Young Thug dominates with the first two verses and the main melodic hook. Quan is relegated to accents and a brief verse at the end with some familiar (boring) similes. But really, the song is just about the sung hook, the queasy synth, and the sparse beat. Not really much of a lyrical record as much as—appropriately enough—lifestyle music. Like the best Young Thug records—“Stoner,” “Hookah”—there's an effortlessness at its core to contrast with the kinetic force of his vocal chords.
Mr. Probz “Waves (Robin Schulz Remix Radio Edit)”
August Alsina f/ Nicki Minaj “No Love (Remix)”
Foxx “Smokin Loud”
Tigo B f/ Ricco Barrino “69”
Drake “0-100”
