As Long as Kevin Durant Returns By the Second Round of the Playoffs, the Warriors Will Be Fine

Kevin Durant is going to miss at least four weeks of the regular season. That shouldn't be a big problem for the best team in the NBA.

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So Kevin Durant will miss a minimum of four weeks with a knee injury, and that’s the good news. He left the court early in his sole visit to Washington on Tuesday after center Zaza Pachulia fell into his leg, bending the joint backward and causing him to limp off. Warriors fans, teammates, and personnel held their breath, only exhaling around 10 a.m. ET when the results of his MRI were released: a grade 2 MCL sprain, a tibia bone bruise. He’ll be re-evaluated in four weeks.

Four weeks gets us to the start of April, with only seven games remaining until the start of the playoffs. And “re-evaluated” certainly does not translate to “healthy,” meaning Durant may not return to action even then. A likelier scenario sees him sitting until the start of the playoffs. Maybe it would make sense to wait even longer than that, depending how the rest of the season plays out—the Warriors are four games up on the Spurs, and the eight seed in the West promises to be a sub-.500 team. Anything can happen, yes, but even a Durant-less Warriors will be a prohibitive favorite in that scenario.

With Durant out, it seems highly unlikely that they’ll repeat as 70-game winners. Considering the way things ended last season, it’s equally unlikely that they’re concerned with that.

There are, however, worse scenarios. The Warriors could lose that top spot in the West to the Spurs, and going from a 1-8 matchup to a 2-7 could mean instead of the Nuggets or Kings they could face the Thunder, Grizzlies, or Clippers in the first round. Or of course, Durant—averaging career highs and leading the Warriors in shooting, rebounding and blocks—could be out longer than a month. These Warriors have won plenty without him, yes, but that doesn’t mean they want to have to try to do it again. If Durant misses closer to two months, a third straight Finals appearance seems highly unlikely.

When the Warriors added Durant this past summer, they knowingly subtracted a lot—Andrew Bogut’s defense, Festus Ezeli’s size, Harrison Barnes’s complementary talents. These are the things you do to acquire a generational superstar, even when you already have one. Losing Durant for an extended time will highlight all of those losses, and adding the likes of Matt Barnes won’t make much difference. Add in Steph Curry’s struggles—he’s shot 2-of-20 from three in his last two games—and there isn’t much margin for error. Curry is shooting 40 percent from three for the year, remarkable for a mere mortal but a career low for him.

There are many things that will have to go right for the Warriors in the next month in order for them to maintain their status as the lead dog in the West. Curry will have to rediscover his shooting touch, Klay Thompson will have to take on more of the scoring load, Draymond Green will have to chill the fuck out. Barnes will have to provide whatever perimeter defense he can muster, and Pachulia will need to forget he almost torpedoed the whole season by falling on KD’s leg. They will mostly just have to endure.

Adding Durant after a 73-win season set expectations for the Warriors so high that they were all but assured to fail to meet them. They’re 50-10 now, and even if they win out they can’t match last year’s win total. With Durant out, it seems highly unlikely that they’ll repeat as 70-game winners. Considering the way things ended last season, it’s equally unlikely that they’re concerned with that. A championship is all that matters. And as long as Durant returns by the time the playoffs start, it’s still within reach.

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