The Super Bowl sucks.
It really does. Let’s be honest here. The hype leading up to the Big Game is interminable. The same exact storylines are recycled for two weeks. The minutiae of the matchups are broken down to proportions only the most hardcore of high school football coaches could appreciate. Worse, only every so often do we actually get a good game.
And Christ, do we need of a good game. Because this has been the worst NFL season in recent memory exacerbated by the truly atrocious postseason. So the football gods are on notice today. We, as devoted NFL fans who watch week in and week out a product that, let’s be honest, has seen better days, deserve a game that’s not a dumpster fire full of phantom penalties, dropped passes, sloppy play, and an anti-climactic ending.
The Super Bowl is the most heavily wagered game on the American sport calendar as an estimated $4.5 billion dollars (yes, billion) will be bet legally and illegally today.
Convention says it should be a good matchup. Potential G.O.A.T. quarterback Tom Brady against the 2016 NFL MVP Matt Ryan. Cheaters vs. the up-and-comers. No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL (the Falcons) vs. the No. 1 scoring defense (the Patriots)...and if you’ve been paying attention, you know that’s a significant stat because six times we’ve seen this same exact matchup in the Super Bowl and the five times the No. 1 scoring defense has emerged victorious.
So keep that in mind if you haven’t put some dollars on the game yet. The Super Bowl is the most heavily wagered game on the American sport calendar as an estimated $4.5 billion dollars (yes, billion) will be bet legally and illegally today. So if you feel like joining and the crowd and want to have something on the game—because, let’s be honest, it’s a whole lot more fun that way—let's get you paid.
The pick for Super Bowl LI is the Patriots (-3) and the under (58.5). You think Brady is going to be denied a sixth Super Bowl ring so he can look Roger Goodell in the eye with a shit-eating grin in front of 100 million people watching around the world? You think Bill Belichick won’t find a way to lock down the best receiver in football, Julio Jones, like Patriots teams always seem to do? You think the cheaters won't find a way to swindle another championship back to New England? Come on, man.
And a quick word on the O/U—yes, these are two high scoring teams and plenty of people will advocate you take the over. But sometimes you have to be disciplined and go the other way. And 58.5 is A LOT of points in the NFL. To me that screams under. Watch this game turn into a field goal contest. Watch the offenses produce long drives and get stalled out in the red zone. Be savvy. Go the other way. Take the under. Collect that cash.
Complex Staff Picks:
Russ Bengtson
Falcons 21, Patriots 17
Jack Erwin
Falcons 24, Patriots 13
Angel Diaz
Falcons 28, Patriots 24
Chris Yuscavage
Patriots 35, Falcons 24
Gavin Evans
Falcons 28, Patriots 23
Aaron Mansfield
Falcons 38, Patriots 34
Julian Patterson
Patriots 31, Falcons 21
Madison Hartman
Falcons 34, Patriots 28
Zach Frydenlund
Falcons 35 Patriots 31
David Amaya
Patriots 31, Falcons 23
Al Eewshah
Patriots 33, Falcons 27
Brendan Dunne
Falcons 28, Patriots 23
Fun With Props
And because so many casual fans love to dabble in the infamous Super Bowl prop bets, about as synonymous with the Big Game as controversial halftime shows, here’s a few we think you should take advantage of.
Atlanta Falcons Team Total
O/U 28.5
The play: Under. Again. Watch the Pats hold the high-powered Falcons offense to a bunch of field goals instead of TDs.
Shortest TD in the Game
O/U 1.5 Yards
The play: Over (+120). Two explosive offenses in this one so we’ll wager there won’t be any goal line stands.
Most Receiving Yards in the Game
The play: Taylor Gabriel and Mohammed Sanu (+700). Because we think Julio Jones will be taken away by the Belichick’s scheme, look for Matt Ryan to pepper is Nos. 2 and 3 receivers with the bulk of his passes. If they break a big one off, and Brady spreads the wealth to his receiving corps, hitting at 7-1 will be sweet.
Time of the National Anthem
O/U 2:09
The play: Under. This is always an under play.
How Many Times the Announcers Say "Trump"?
O/U 1.5
The play: Under. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman will keep the broadcast strictly about football.
How Many Times Will Gisele Be Shown on TV During the Game?
O/U 1.5
The play: Under. Gisele is never on TV. She's always hiding somewhere away from the cameras.
