Don't Get Too Excited, Your Rookie Won't Help You

Excited by your favorite NBA team's newest rookie? Don't expect any miracles.

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Complex Original

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In 2003, the Cleveland Cavaliers defied all the odds, earning the right to draft the Chosen One. LeBron James, resplendent in an all-white suit, shook hands with then-commissioner David Stern, and then went off to fulfill his destiny. Thirteen years later he did just that, bringing the first title to Cleveland in more than a half-century. In 2004? The Cleveland Cavaliers were back in the lottery, King and all.

I know. The draft happened just yesterday and your team drafted its savior and you want to celebrate. That’s fine. Just understand that, whoever your team picked, it’s more likely than not if you were in the lottery this year you’ll be right back in the lottery next year. Ask the Sixers, ask the Wolves. The difference between the right pick and the wrong pick can mean a lot in the long run, but in the short term? It probably won’t matter much. The Timberwolves got Karl Anthony-Towns last year, a blue-chip prospect if there ever was one who won the Rookie of the Year award the year after teammate Andrew Wiggins did. They picked fifth this year.

The Timberwolves got Karl Anthony-Towns last year, a blue-chip prospect if there ever was one who won the Rookie of the Year award the year after teammate Andrew Wiggins did. They picked fifth this year.

Young players are great. They’re on cheap deals (thanks CBA!), they’re fan favorites, they’re fresh-faced and potential-filled and brimming with energy and enthusiasm. They can’t be criticized, because whatever circumstances put their team in the situation to draft them, they weren’t even there! Then the season starts and the honeymoon ends. The NBA isn’t college. Veteran teammates demand respect (and the ball). All-Star opponents make them look silly. Columnists looking to fill inches and commentators looking for easy targets stoke the afterglow into brushfires. All that stuff about having time to develop? It lasts right until the first losing streak.

It’s appropriate that the chance at the first pick has been dubbed the lottery, because the chances at getting a star in the draft are slim. We remember those who make it and—except for the absolute stone-cold busts—forget those who don’t. Analytics pioneer Dean Oliver did the math so I don’t have to: Between 2009 and 2013, there are fewer than 10 players per draft averaging at least 42 starts per year. So a sixth of the players picked become somewhat regular starters. Not bad. But Oliver looked at guys getting more than 60 starts a year, and that—over the same timeframe—is three or four players per draft. That’s...that’s not good.

Yes, some drafts are better than others. That LeBron-led 2003 Draft featured four future Hall of Famers—James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade—in the top five picks, and a disproportionate number of guys who are still contributing—David West, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa. But even in that very deep, very good draft, there were swinging misses. Remember Troy Bell? He was the Big East Player of the Year out of Boston College, was picked 15th by the Orlando Magic. He played six games in the NBA.

But that gets away from the main point of this, which is that, even if you make the right pick, it’s not going to help. Not right away. For every Derrick Rose, who won Rookie of the Year and took the Bulls to the playoffs where he hung 36 points on the Boston Celtics in Game 1, there will be way more Michael Carter-Williams', who won Rookie of the Year and took the Sixers right back to the lottery. Or 2011 No. 1 pick Kyrie Irving, who also won Rookie of the Year and took the Cavaliers right back to the lottery. The Cavaliers didn’t get good again until they flipped their NEXT two lottery picks—both No. 1 overall—into LeBron James.

The NBA Lottery can turn into Groundhog Day—just ask the Philadelphia 76ers, who have been picking in the top 10 for years now and have the virtual equivalent of a fallout bunker filled with second-round picks and sign-and-stash guys. Great for the bottom line, not so good for building a viable basketball team. To do that, you need veterans. And to get those, you need to come up off of young talent—who might just go on to star for someone else. And that's not always easy (see Danny Ainge).

If your team has long been terrible, the lottery won’t be what saves it. The Los Angeles Clippers were THE terrible team, and they weren’t saved by Blake Griffin or Lamar Odom or Darius Miles. They were saved by David Stern and the NBA, who basically gifted them All-Star point guard Chris Paul. Yes, there was Tim Duncan, but he went to a great organization that had been decimated (perhaps by choice) by one injury-plagued season. That kind of thing doesn’t happen often.

So enjoy your new player, whatever team you root for. Treat him well. And understand that he probably won’t help you win a goddamn thing. See you back in the lottery next year.

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