Should You Believe the Hype Around Ben Simmons?

Is the hype around Ben Simmons legit, or will the LSU freshman be Australia's Anthony Bennett?

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It’s all happening in Ben Simmons land. There are a few key questions facing the Aussie basketball phenom over the coming months, which will play an important part in his early career development: Can he take LSU to the SEC tournament summit (starting today) and a spot in the NCAA tourney? Will he suit up for the Boomers in the Olympics? Which team will win the NBA lottery and hence Simmons?

Those questions will remain unanswered for now, but over the last few months, Simmons has already answered one question: can he be Australia’s first NBA superstar?

The answer is an emphatic "yes". Of course, this hasn’t stopped the inevitable appearance of naysayers: “He has no jumpshot,” “he doesn’t shoot enough,” “he flunked his classes,” “his team doesn’t win enough” are all arguments I’ve heard over recent times. Come on - are you guys serious?  Let’s take a step back and look what he’s achieved statistically. Then we’ll break down each of the above arguments individually.

Per game: 19.6 points, 11.9 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 0.8 blocks, 56.3% shooting.

Firstly, he’s a damn freshman and he just put up these stats. Since 1994-95 (when these stats were first collected for all college players), no freshman, sophomore, junior or senior – i.e. no one – has put up 15+ points, 10+ rebounds and 5+ assists.  It’s the assists that is the remarkable thing here: it is notoriously difficult to rack up assist numbers in college, due to heavy zone defenses and a long shot clock which sees the ball end up in most players hands throughout a possession. Magic Johnson and Chris Paul only averaged 7.4 and 5.9 assists per game in their freshman years respectively, and in the last 20 seasons no player has put up 10 assists per game over a college season.

Thus, for Simmons to average 5 per game as a power forward is highly impressive. Needless to say, Simmons is the first true big man (averaging double digit boards) to average 5+ assists since 1995. Going back further, he is probably the only guy not named Larry or Oscar to achieve this (it is difficult to confirm this with the nature of old college statistics, as numerous teams didn’t record assists until the 90s). He has the thread-the-needle bounce pass down pat. The behind the back. The no-look. But it’s the less flashy passes that really catch the eye of NBA scouts; due to his length, he can make skip passes out of the post rarely seen on a basketball court, which can send defenses scrambling all over the court. You double-team this guy at your peril. I mean, look at these GIFs – this guy appears to be a triple double machine. 

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It’s true that Simmons’ jumpshot remains a work in progress – hell, he may even be shooting with the wrong hand: He does most things on the court with his right hand, but shoots Js lefty!  But he’s still a freshman, and there is plenty of time to rectify this situation. The promising news is, despite inconsistent mechanics, he has managed to throw in around one third of his jumpshots – not disastrous. Known for his work ethic, Simmons is likely to improve in this area, and teams should back their coaching staff to bring Simmons up to scratch and beyond, similar to the Spurs and Kawhi Leonard. 

On the other hand, let’s be pessimistic and assume he never does develop that jumpshot. A successful small ball lineup doesn’t need all five guys to be shooters – in fact, Simmons could be as close to the perfect small ball centre the league has ever seen. We all know he is a one-man fast break. But let’s not forget, he is also a legitimate 6-10, averaged 11.7 boards per game and has incredible finishing skills around the rim. He has all the tools to slot in and excel at centre if required. Throw him out on the court with a 3-and-D wing and three guards, and you’ll have some thrilling offensive basketball. And one final thing: who knows what the league will look like in five years. Maybe small ball will die. Fortunately, Simmons has enough skills to ensure he’ll flourish no matter what direction the league heads.

Firstly, college isn’t the NBA. So while his 11.8 attempts per game doesn’t sound like much, it was the most two-point field goal attempts per game in the SEC, and the most total attempts amongst forwards. Not bad considering he was fifth in the conference in total assists. Also, Simmons took by far the most free throw attempts in the SEC, indicating he would have averaged yet more field goal attempts if defenders simply stopped hacking him. Sure, he doesn’t blaze away like JR Smith – but would you really want him to, considering his court vision and passing finesse? Me neither. Simmons was 2nd in points produced in the SEC, narrowly edged out by Mississippi junior Stefan Moody.

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Let me know last time knowledge of Oceanography helped you out on the basketball court (Simmons admitted he couldn’t get his head into this class, but he enjoyed the Communications class, apparently).  You could argue this proves how much he loves basketball – he’s spending too much time in the gym!  Carmelo Anthony couldn’t maintain a GPA above 2.0 at Syracuse.  And he’s now earned $160 million and made 9 All Star teams.  It’s a shame these obvious future NBA stars have to go through the charade of sitting through classes less than twelve months before their first million dollar paycheck.  But I’m sure they’ll get over it…

It’s important not to get carried away with team records in college. Paul George went 13-21 as a freshman, for example. Yes, LSU’s 18-13 record is somewhat disappointing, but it should be noted that when he’s been on the court, Simmons has been winning. He leads the SEC in box score plus-minus with +12.1 per game – a whole 1.1 points above #2 (Georgia Junior J.J. Frazier) – and is ninth in the whole nation (first among freshmen), which includes lopsided conferences like Southland. The numbers suggest Simmons hasn’t been blessed with the greatest teammates this year, unfortunately. Here’s hoping Simmons can put them on his back and make first an SEC tourney run, and then an NCAA tourney run.

And hey, maybe that will be followed by a Boomers Olympic run.

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