Trust Me, I Know My Sh*t: Joe Budden's NFL Picks

Image via Complex Original

For once, the NFL's slate of Thanksgiving games is actually good this year. The feisty Lions are a 6.5 home dog to the undefeated Packers tomorrow afternoon, and the one-loss 49ers travel to the AFC-leading Ravens in the inaugural Harbaugh Bowl for the night cap. On Sunday, one once mighty, now struggling AFC East team will be essentially eliminated from playoff contention when the Bills visit the Jets, the Eagles try to redeem their dream season when Tom Brady and the Pats come to town, and the Bears debut a new quarterback in Oakland in a matchup of surprising playoff contenders (we've included the Pittsburgh-Kansas City Sunday nighter, but you may want to just skip that one—flex scheduling, here we come!). Finally, on Monday night, the Giants look to get back on track when they visit the Saints.

As always, Joe's picking against the spread, no cheap shit here.

Follow @Complex_Sports for more news and commentary. Follow @JoeBudden to really get your mind right.

Packers @ Lions (+6.5), 12:30 Thursday, Fox

I got Green Bay, I’m not getting off that train. They’ll cover. Don’t get me wrong, I do think that they’re beatable. Detroit is one of the teams I think can beat them. But Detroit coming off that emotional win last week, I don’t know if they can muster it up again. I just don’t have them doing it this week, maybe any other week. I have the Bears giving Green Bay a tough game; I have a healthy Giants giving Green Bay a tough game, but I’m not getting off that wagon.

49ers @ Ravens (-3), 8:20 Thursday, NFL Network

I have the Niners winning that game. The Niners are the new Ravens. Great defense, I have them in my fantasy league and they never fail me. I think they have a better offense than the Ravens, and they’re bothy predicated on the same thing: A QB that can manage the game and an emerging running back. I just have them a little bit better this week. I think the Niners are a much better team than the Bengals, and I think the Bengals should’ve won that game against Baltimore on Sunday.

Bills @ Jets (-8), 1:00 Sunday, CBS

The Jets win that. I’m not sure they’ll win by 8, only because of how horribly the Bills played last week. If they don’t do better this week, I’ll assume the Bills are done, but they're too talented a team. I think the Jets win, but they’ll squeak it out. They won’t win by 8.

Patriots @ Eagles (+3), 4:15 Sunday, CBS

I’m not buying the Eagles, not at all. Still an extremely mediocre team, I don’t care who’s playing quarterback, they’re not beating the Patriots this week. As far as the Eagles, I was one of the people at the beginning of the season saying this is why you play the game. The Heat didn’t walk to the Finals. I think chemisty is extremely underrated. We’ve seen the Eagles lose 6 of the first 9 games. How could we say that a defense that was that bad is gonna stop Tom Brady? If I wasn’t a sports fan and somebody said that to me it would seem fairly obvious.

Bears @ Raiders (-4.5), 4:05 Sunday, Fox

That’s a tough one. Carson Palmer looks great now to me, but Matt Forte didn’t play well last week and the Bears still found a way to win. But I’m going with the Raiders, this is [Bears quarterback] Caleb Hanie's first game starting. Maybe if this was his 8th game starting I'd give the Bears a chance, cause he’s not bad. But Michael Bush is going carzy, that Oakland D is looking good. They won’t be able to stop Matt Forte but they could contain him somehiow. I got the Raiders to cover.

Steelers @ Chiefs (+10), 8:20 Sunday, NBC

Shit, after that performance that Kansas City just put up I can’t go against that spread. I’m going with Pittsburgh. Kansas City is just too beat up.

Giants @ Saints (-7), 8:30 Monday, ESPN

I got the Giants showing up. They nomorally play New Orleans pretty well. I’m going with the Giants in that one, call me crazy. I’m gonna go with them covering, I’m not going to push the envelope and say they win, but I’ll go with the safe cover. That Eagle game was disappointing. I think they win that game if the tight end could catch a ball. Jesus. I can’t be mad at the Giants offense. That’s only the second time this year they’ve scored less than 27 points. I’ve seen New Orleans look mediocre this year. The Giants can get to the quarterback, and anybody that can get to the quarterback, they’ve got a shot.