Who Will Cover: Week 4 College Football Picks

Image via Complex Original

Last week we took a bit of a hit to the chin going 2-3, and the games this weekend only get harder to predict. As the season goes on, teams begin to have a better idea of what their opposition is planning, making it that much harder to predict the close ones.

We picked the biggest games for this weekend, all of them happening Saturday, including UNC vs. Georgia Tech at noon, then a trio of games at 3:30 p.m. featuring Oklahoma State traveling to Texas A&M, Florida State heading into Death Valley versus Clemson, and Arkansas going to Tuscaloosa versus Alabama. A Big East-SEC matchup of West Virginia versus LSU hits primetime at 8 p.m. We have provided in-depth analysis of all the games in attempt to win you some money, but keep the plays small again this weekend, aside from that LSU game.

Last Week (2-3)

Overall (7-3)

All spreads are from Covers and could change at any time leading up to kickoff. Follow me on Twitter (@nrestivo) to get my insights during all the games I predicted for this weekend. Good luck to all.

UNC @ Georgia Tech (Saturday, 12:00 p.m., ESPN)

Spread: Georgia Tech (-6.5)

The Tar Heels hope to spoil the success of the Ramblin Wreck this weekend as the two ACC opponents square off in what should be the best competition each team has faced this season. Paul Johnson’s team has been running the triple option to perfection and have passing game this year to complement that three headed monster of a backfield. Johnson doesn’t come into games with a big spreadsheet of plays to call; he goes off feel, and to put it simply, this season he's had the magic touch. His team is averaging close to 60 points per game.

UNC has one of the toughest rush defenses in the country, but they went up against James Madison, a Rutgers team with a very young offensive line, and a Virginia squad that doesn’t pose much of a threat anywhere on the field. The UNC offense is average at best, and this game will come down to Georgia Tech’s defense and whether or not they can stop UNC; if they do they’ll win by 10 points. Take Georgia Tech and the offense to cover.

FSU @ Clemson (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Spread: Clemson (-2.5)

This game poses the biggest question mark of all the big games this weekend, mainly because half of Florida State’s team is either questionable or out, including their quartback EJ Manuel. If Manuel plays, this game will be more closely contested; however, he is missing a few weapons on the offensive side of the ball, not to mention that returner/cornerback Greg Reid is mostly likely out as well. I like how Clemson looked last week, even though I picked against them. When they're in Death Valley, they’re a very tough team to beat. Clemson uses many formations mixed in with a ton of personnel to confuse the defense, and it always helps to have one of the fastest freshman in the country: Sammy Watkins.

Even if Manuel does play Clemson will still win and cover.

Arkansas @ Alabama (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)

Spread: Alabama (-11.5)

This game is tough, the number one scoring offense in the SEC versus the number one scoring defense in the SEC—something has to give. Arkansas’s Tyler Wilson will head into Bryant-Denny Stadium this weekend for the first road start of his career. Believe that Bobby Petrino won’t allow early mistakes for Wilson but eventually they'll have to open up their playbook against the stout Alabama defense.

This game will come down to whether or not Trent Richardson and Bama’s offensive line can control the line of scrimmage. The Crimson Tide are at their best when Richardson has room to operate, when they can open up the passing game. 11.5 points is a lot but I think Arkansas comes into this game timid.

Bama will win by two touchdowns – Roll Tide.

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2)

Spread: Texas A&M (-4.5)

Oklahoma State heads into the Home of the 12th Man and Kyle Field on Saturday afternoon in what should be one of the three big games kicking off at 3:30. Last year the Cowboys won with a last-second field goal, capitalizing on the five A&M turnovers. Both teams have high-powered offenses, and this game could hit the over of 70. The Aggies are led by their quarterback Ryan Tannehill who boasts a 7-1 record as a starter, with the one loss coming to LSU in the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma State has some weapons of their own in Brandon Weeden, a former minor-leaguer drafted by the New York Yankees, to go along with one of the best receivers in the country, Justin Blackmon, adding just enough of a running game with Brandon Randle to keep the defense honest. Neither team has much of a defense, but you can contest that Texas A&M has held their opponents combined to 21 points, but the comptetion hasn’t been like anything they'll see on Saturday.

A&M could come out with the victory but it won’t be by more than 4 points. Take Oklahoma State as the dog.

LSU @ West Virginia (Saturday, 8:00 p.m., ABC)

Spread: West Virginia (+5.5)

ESPN's College Gameday heads to Morgantown for the first time ever, and you better believe that the crowd—along with the players—will be more than hyped. And that’s exactly where the experience and the SEC swagger come into play. LSU sees hostile crowds every season playing in the Southeastern conference, and they have plenty of experience on both sides of the ball to overcome crowd noise. West Virginia has looked sharp this year with their passing offense through Geno Smith, but their rushing offense has been less than spectacular. If LSU can turn this game into a passing affair for West Virginia, this will be over at halftime.

Expect John Chavis, defensive coordinator of LSU, to have some exotic blitzes cooked up for this game, especially if LSU can take the lead early. Maybe the best way to compare West Virginia is to Oregon’s spread offense: both teams like to attack the perimeter and get on the outside, which is tough to do against the LSU team.

The first half will be close, but the ground and pound from the LSU offense will end up covering and they will continue their quest for the National Championship.