Who Will Win Best New Artist at the VMAs Tonight?

Predicting which musician will take home the Moonman.

Sep 06, 2012
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Complex Original

Image via Complex Original

Not Available Lead
Complex Original

Image via Complex Original

In a few hours, the 2012 MTV VMAs will be broadcasting live from the Nokia Theater in Los Angeles. Each year, one of the show's biggest draws is its status-affirming Best New Artist category. In the past, we’ve seen names like Nirvana, Eminem, and Lady Gaga take home the coveted Moonman statue. This year's contenders are all strong possibilities, but who really has an edge over the others? Good question. We evaluated the nominees—Carly Rae Jepsen, Frank Ocean, fun., One Direction, The Wanted—and picked a winner, too. Place your bets.

Written By Eric Diep (@E_Diep)

Carly Rae Jepsen, Nominated for "Call Me Maybe"

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Bias: Her fellow Canadian pop star, Justin Bieber, won the award in 2010.

Merit: “Call Me Maybe” is one of the biggest songs of year, spending nine weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100 chart. It's been parodied by everyone from regular fans to President Barack Obama.

Frank Ocean, Nominated for "Swim Good"

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Bias: “Swim Good” is also nominated for Best Male Video and Best Direction, and his Odd Future pal Tyler, The Creator won Best New Artist last year.

Merit: Frank Ocean made music history this year with his same-sex love story, and then built on the hype with his universally acclaimed Def Jam debut, Channel ORANGE. Of the nominees, he seems best positioned for a lengthy career.

fun., Nominated for "We Are Young" f/ Janelle Monáe

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Bias:  fun. opened up this year's MTV Movie Awards with Janelle Monae. The group is also up for the Best Pop Video category.

Merit: The indie-pop trio may be newbies, but unlike their category competitors, they've had two top 5 pop singles. Their impact should not be underestimated.

One Direction, Nominated for "What Makes You Beautiful"

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Bias: One Direction made the boy bands cool again. This will be the group's first appearance at the VMAs, and they're also nominated for Best Pop Video. MTV is taking advantage of the group’s heartthrob status, releasing a series of promo spots that feature the gang posing in slow motion.  

Merit: One Direction has seen much success back home in the UK, selling 660,000 copies of their album Up All Night as of August. The group is on pace for platinum certification in the States, too. A win Best New Artist win would be the perfect set-up for their next album, Take Me Home.

The Wanted, Nominated for "Glad You Came"

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Bias: The Wanted performing their party-starting anthem, “Glad You Came,” during MTV’s Spring Break 2012.

Merit: "Glad You Came" hit No. 1 in the UK, No. 3 in the States, and it's certified triple platinum. If the win is based on one video, they've made a strong case.

And The Winner Is...

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There’s no denying Carly Rae Jepsen's “Call My Maybe.” The song made her an instant star and this win will be the final confirmation that she's arrived. With Rihanna and Katy Perry more than established, Jepsen will claim the Best New Artist award tonight, successfully wrapping up her crazy ride in 2012 and giving MTV another pop siren to champion in the post-Britney era. It doesn't hurt that her sophomore album, Kiss, releases in less than two weeks, either.

Frank OceanOne DirectionCarly Rae JepsenMTV VMAsFun

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