4th Quarter Rap Releases: What Are The Odds?

Ah, the Fourth Quarter, every rap fan’s favorite time of year. Ever since ‘98 when Russell and Lyor conspired to inflate the value of Def Jam before they sold their remaining stake by releasing Jay-Z, DMX, Redman, Foxy Brown and Method Man back-to-back, Q4 has been synonymous with the biggest and best rap releases. And, boy, this year the labels need their franchise players to put numbers on the board… BADLY. Seriously, it’s a shit-show out there. However, no matter how much the bosses want these albums to drop, they can’t just will their marquee acts into wrapping their record.

Since it’s all about side bets these days (peace to our peeps flippin’ Default Credit Swaps like weight), Complex has decided to look at this year’s supposed holiday releases and set the odds on whether big dogs like Eminem, Jay-Z, and Kanye West can get it together in order to save their bosses’ jobs. Read on for our exclusive analysis and get ready to place your bets…

• Artist: Jay-Z
• Title: Blueprint 3
• Release Date: TBD
• Odds It’ll Drop: 10,000-to-1
• How Badly L.A Reid Needs It:

Sales Pitch: The greatest rapper of all-time revisits his greatest masterpiece'and it’s long-winded, extraneous sequel'in an effort to end his Def Jam career on a high note and redeem the franchise, while re-aligning himself with little brother Kanye West, in the wake of ‘Ye’s undeniable midas touch.

THE CATCH? A couple weeks after Jay expressed interest in releasing a Kanye-helmed album, even leaking the West-produced track “Jockin’ Jay-Z,” ‘Ye surprised the world'and possibly Jay'by announcing that he too intended on releasing an album in the 4th quarter. Since West holed up in Hawaii to make his LP, there hasn’t been a peep from Jay…

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• Artist: Common
• Title: Universal Mind Control
• Release Date: Dec 9th
• Odds It’ll Drop: 4-to-1
• How Badly Jimmy Iovine Needs It:

Sales Pitch: Fresh off a year of chunky checks courtesy of his Hollywood success (to the tune of 15mil, according to Forbes) Lonnie Lynn is looking to express himself through rap again. But his ace Kanye West, who resuscitated his career and helped him put together his last two critically acclaimed, and commercially successful, LPs, has his hands full, so Com is exploring an electro-funk, dance feel with Pharrell and Mr. DJ.

THE CATCH? The LP was originally titled Invincible Summer'’cause it was *duh* supposed to come out during the summer'but the lukewarm reception to the single and an even chillier response to the idea of a Kanye-less Common album seems to have put the breaks on things temporarily (Note to Rashid: Might wanna swing some of the ‘Universal Mind Control in K.West’s direction and get some tracks… Not sayin’, but we’re sayin’…). Adding insult to injury, now Common, Kanye and No I.D. have already started talking about Com’s NEXT album, The Believer, which they’ll be producing together, further indicating UMC’s possible lame-duck status.

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• Artist: Eminem
• Title: Relapse
• Release Date: TBD (Dec 23rd has been speculated)
• Odds It’ll Drop: 7-to-2
• How Badly Jimmy Iovine Needs It:

Sales Pitch: After several quiet, seemingly bored-with-rap years, Eminem has found the fire and is penning potentially his final opus with beats by himself, Dr. Dre and possibly even outside guys like DJ Premier, too. And as the freestyle he leaked in support of his autobiography, The Way I Am, indicates, Marshall has gotten his lyrical weight back up and is intent on reminding the world that he can still rap his ass off. Watch out, Wayne.

THE CATCH? There seems to be no indication that the LP is completed, or that a single has been set, and it seems like an awfully important record, career-wise, for the highest-selling rapper of all-time to rush out without the right set up in order appease Jimmy Iovine, Doug Morris, and the Universal share-holders.

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• Artist: Kanye West
• Title: 808s & Heartbreak
• Release Date: Nov 25th
• Odds It’ll Drop: 1-to-1
• How Badly L.A Reid Needs It:

Sales Pitch: Having enjoyed enormous success and enormous heartbreak in the last 12 months Kanye has decided to step left and make a mostly auto-tune-singing art record to express his changed outlook. All you need to know is that he’s doing it so it’s gonna be good, and he’s working hard and you should be appreciative, fuckers.

THE CATCH? None. The record is in the can and LA Reid’s already cashed his bonus check for getting ‘Ye to deliver in ‘08.

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• Artist: 50 Cent
• Title: Before I Self Destruct
• Release Date: Dec 16th
• Odds It’ll Drop: 2-to-1
• How Badly Jimmy Iovine Needs It:

Sales Pitch: After licking his wounds having been bested by Kanye last year, and then getting the swift kick to the nuts that was Terminate On Sight’s sales figures (the album was fire, but c’mon, numbers don’t lie) this summer, 50 Cent is back… and he’s fulfilling his recording contract'so he can get the fuck off of Interscope'like his life depends on it! Oh, and he’s reconnected with Em, Dre, and Sha $XL and they’re going back to the Colonel’s original recipe of aggressive content and consistent content, too.

THE CATCH? If a tree falls in the woods and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?